Jan
08
Toughest Road Ahead: Blazers
By Blazer Fanatic Posted in: Blazers
I saw a recent blog post that showed an analysis of NBA teams and their remaining schedules for the 2012-2013 season. Portland has started the season with the 4th most difficult schedule. This most recent analysis from Ed Kupfer, a self proclaimed "crunchologist" and professional statistical analysist since 2006, shows Portland has since move to most difficult.
Looking at that chart and Kupfer's credentials, I have to take his word for it. But it didn't stop me from looking into some of the variables that factor into his analysis. The following chart shows the number of games remaining against opponents at or above .500, and below .500, and whether those games are played at home or away.
| Team |
Games left vs ≥ .500 |
Games left vs < .500 |
| (Home/Away) |
(Home/Away) |
| L.A. Clippers |
27 (13-14) |
20 (8-12) |
| Oklahoma City |
31 (14-17) |
17 (7-10) |
| San Antonio |
26 (13-13) |
19 (12-7) |
| Memphis |
29 (14-15) |
21 (10-11) |
| Golden State |
31 (16-15) |
18 (10-8) |
| Houston |
27 (14-13) |
21 (8-13) |
| Portland |
34 (17-17) |
14 (8-6) |
| Denver |
28 (18-10) |
18 (10-8) |
| Utah |
31 (17-14) |
15 (9-6) |
| Minnesota |
32 (17-15) |
20 (10-10) |
| L.A. Lakers |
32 (15-17) |
17 (8-9) |
| Dallas |
32 (19-13) |
15 (7-8) |
| Sacramento |
28 (13-15) |
19 (10-9) |
| Phoenix |
33 (15-18) |
14 (7-7) |
| New Orleans |
29 (15-14) |
19 (9-10) |
| Miami* |
26 (10-16) |
24 (12-12) |
* Miami included for comparison, having the easiest remaining Strength of Schedule
Portland has the most games yet to played against teams with a record of .500 or greater (34). This should not be a huge surprise, when you consider that Portland is in the Northwest Division, and plays each team four times. The Blazers have only played four division games to date (3-1).
| Division |
Win % |
| Southeast |
.421 |
| Central |
.447 |
| Atlantic |
.503 |
| Pacific |
.520 |
| Southwest |
.529 |
| Northwest |
.576 |
Miami is in the Southeast division, while Portland is in the Northwest. The Northwest division is clearly the most difficult division to play against in the NBA.
Something else to look at is the number of back-to-back (B2B) games, Miami was scheduled to played 12 back-to-back (B2B) games this season (9 where the 2nd game is on the road), where as Portland has 17 (13 where the 2nd game is on the road).
The lenth and number of road trips also plays a huge factor in Strength of Schedule. Portland already completed two brutal road trips: a 7 game (in 11 nights) and a 4 game (in 5 nights) trip. They have yet to play a 6 game (in 10 nights), a 3 game (in 5 nights), and a 5 game (in 7 nights) road trip. No NBA team travels more than Portland.
This Blazer team has far exceeded expectations, as "experts" like ESPN projected them only winning 28 games this season. They currently sit in the 7th seed (19-15) out West if the playoffs started today. Portland has the toughest road ahead, but they have every opportunity to bury those low-expectation for good.