a quest to find the next big STAT

joe.k

Jan 03

This week saw a huge streak broken (Clippers’ 17 wins), a poor streak stopped (Mavericks’ 6 losses), important players coming back from long injuries (Amar’e and Eric Gordon), Durant getting ejected for the first time, the Celtics continuously losing and the Warriors racking up some nice wins.

We’re going to go through all of the teams and explain what went right or wrong during this past week, but before we even get there, let’s compare this year’s picture to last year’s based on our stat (which someone suggested be called, “weighted home-away-close” or WHAC. I guess from here on in, that’s what we’ll call it!

Last year, 18 teams posted a final WHAC of 80 or more. Truth is, the way the stat was put together was to ensure that average team got a WHAC of about an 80. This shows that last year you needed to be ‘average’ to make the playoffs. This year, it’s a little different story. At this point there are just 12 teams over 80. Why is this? Well you have teams like the Lakers and Nets who should be better, but have been struggling, so I assume they’ll hit the 80 mark. Also, you have Minnesota, Portland, Houston and Utah who based on their record, will likely finish with an above 80 WHAC, due to some more close games they will inevitably win before the year is over. So don’t worry yet; even though it seems the middle of the NBA is stuck in in a pack and there are a bunch of teams kind of sitting there together, it seems like over time that will change and we’ll have 14 strong teams in the Playoffs (8 West, 6 East).

As for the crème of the crop, they pretty much match up with last year. Last year 7 teams posted a WHAC of over 100 (with Chicago and San Antonio posting a drop higher than 119) and this year, there are currently 7 teams over 100 (with San Antonio sitting on top with… 118).

On to this week’s rankings…

Biggest Gain in WHAC - Sacramento +10.86
Most Out of WHAC - Boston -8.92

Largest Jump in Rankings - Brooklyn +4
Largest Fall in Rankings - Boston -4


prev = prev ranking
C-H = close games won at home
C-A = close games won away
change = how much their WHAC changed over the week


Team

prev

W

L

H-W

H-L

A-W

A-L

C-H

C-A

WHAC

change

1


San Antonio

(2)

26

8

13

2

13

6

1

2

118.49

4.49

 


Milwaukee (A), Dallas (A), Brooklyn (H) and Houston (H). None of them are great, but they're all decent teams. Going 4-0 and getting things done; Classic San Antonio.

2

L.A. Clippers

(1)

25

8

15

3

10

5

1

2

114.83

-4.23

 


After wins against Boston and Utah (2x), the 17 game win streak came to an abrupt end with an away loss to Denver and a home loss to Golden State. But let's not get ahead of ourselves, those are both very strong teams. They might not be in the clouds anymore, but they're still close.

3

Oklahoma City

(4)

24

7

16

3

8

4

0

1

112.90

0.43

 


They go 3-1 with a home loss to Brooklyn, and their WHAC barely changes, what does this team need to do to be on top? (hint: try winning the close games - they've lost by single digits to Miami, San Antonio, Boston and Minnesota, and a 10 point loss to Memphis).

4

Miami

(5)

22

8

15

2

7

6

2

2

108.12

-3.26

 


Losing on the road to Milwaukee and Detroit should not happen to this team, neither should only beating the Magic by 2. Their WHAC didn't drop by any more courtesy of pulling out that tight win against the Magic.

5

Golden State

(6)

22

10

11

4

11

6

1

2

106.67

4.34

 


3 homes against Philly, Boston and the Clippers, and 3 wins. Maybe you'd say it was a tough night for Clippers after their streak was snapped, and Boston/Philadelphia are bad on the road, but Golden State keeps winning and it's hard to argue with that.

6

New York

(3)

21

10

12

3

9

7

2

3

106.31

-6.90

 


Tough Loss at Sacramento, and they fought hard to come back against Portland, but when you're ranked this high, even a slight hiccup will hurt you. But don’t get nervous, this seems more like a hiccup than any reason for concern.

7

Atlanta

(7)

20

10

11

5

9

5

3

0

102.33

1.91

 


Wins at Cleveland and New Orleans, ehh. Home win against a solid away team in Indiana, not bad. Loss on the road in Houston, understandable. Bottom line, it's the same as the last few years, they're a pretty good team, but nothing special - they stay ranked 7th.

8

Memphis

(8)

20

9

13

3

7

6

0

0

98.58

0.22

 


They picked up wins at home against Denver and away at Boston, but they lost to the Pacers on the road, to keep the same WHAC. The only thing that's hurting this team right now is that they've lost some single digit games to some good teams (Denver (2x), SA, LA...) Come on Memphis, close em out!

9

Denver

(9)

18

15

10

1

8

14

1

1

92.50

1.75

 


A big win at Dallas, and a streakstopping win against LA with a 9 point loss at Memphis, is a strong week. But when you make it close to the top, you need more than a strong week to move on up.

10

Indiana

(10)

19

13

11

3

8

10

0

2

91.85

1.58

 


Indiana keeps taking care of their home court finshing off close games vs. Washington, Phoenix and Memphis. Their only loss this week came in Atlanta; a formidable team. Their road record will definitely help them to soon overcome Denver in these standings.

11

Chicago

(12)

17

13

9

8

8

5

1

1

89.22

3.97

 


Not the most impressive week as the Bulls lost to the Bobcats at home, but their away close game win in Orlando bumped them up in the standings, and the Rose-less Bulls are approaching the prestigious WHAC of 90s.

12

Milwaukee

(11)

16

14

9

7

7

7

2

1

82.56

-3.85

 


Weird week for Milwaukee as they blow out the Heat, but lose to Detroit. They also lost a good game to the Spurs, but who can blame them for that. They need to beat teams like Detroit as we're starting to see the cutoff between very good teams, and the rest of the pack. Milwaukee might already be under the cutoff.

13

Houston

(13)

18

14

13

6

5

8

1

1

79.67

-2.93

 


Handily beating Atlanta and New Orleans at home, and losing there by 30 to OKC, puts a little perspective as to where this team is holding. A good game lost in San Antonio looks good for this team, but the fact that it made their away record 5-8 didn't help here.

14

Brooklyn

(18)

17

15

11

7

6

8

2

1

79.65

5.17

 


Got shelacked at San Antonio, but did their own shelaking at OKC, add that to a close win against Cleveland (and a win against Charlotte) and Brooklyn had a very fine week jumping up 4 places in our rankings. 

15

Portland

(15)

16

15

11

4

5

11

3

1

78.73

1.65

 


Two strong games; Home vs. Philly and away against the Knicks, sandwhiched between a beating in LA (Lakerland) and a beating in Toronto. Their 11-4 home record is the only thing keeping them afloat in these rankings.

16

Utah

(14)

16

17

10

4

6

13

3

1

77.77

-3.81

 


They beat Minnesota in an important divisional game (ok, I guess not nearly as important as a divisional game in football), but going 0-2 in a home and home against the streaking Clipps, didn't help them out. At least they fought hard; they'll stick around.

17

Minnesota

(17)

14

14

9

4

5

10

2

0

75.33

-0.36

 


A big loss on the road to Utah and barely eked out a win at home against Phoenix, keeps Minny sitting still with a WHAC in the mid 70's.

18

L.A. Lakers

(20)

15

16

10

7

5

9

0

1

70.09

-0.77

 


Going 1-1 at home against the Blazers and 76ers is not what Laker fans would have been happy with before the season began, but at this point, they just need to hang around long enough to make a run, and they're hanging tight.

19

Philadelphia

(19)

15

18

9

7

6

11

3

0

69.56

-2.69

 


With 4 games on the road decided by 7 or fewer points, you gotta credit Philly for being in striking distance. But going 1-3 in those games and after things have settled following their strong start, that's where they are; not there yet, but within striking distance.

20

Boston

(16)

14

17

9

6

5

11

2

0

67.56

-8.92

 


Closing out their road trip with 3 big losses to LAC, GS and Sacramento (decent at home), they came back home to another double digit loss, this time to Memphis. Credit an 0-4 week to their huge drop in WHAC.

21

Dallas

(21)

13

20

8

6

5

14

0

2

62.51

-5.07

 


Look, this teams needs to right their ship, and playing OKC, Denver, San Antonio and Miami in one week, is definitely not going to help them. They got lucky the NBA also scheduled them a game against the Wiz, that kept them from bottoming out.

22

Toronto

(24)

12

20

8

5

4

15

1

1

60.39

9.97

 


Look out teams on top of Toronto, they are clicking right now. No, the teams they beat (NO and Orl away, Portland at home) are not juggernauts, but after a terrible start they're starting to separate themselves from the bottom of the gutter.

23

Orlando

(22)

12

20

7

11

5

9

0

0

55.63

-7.40

 


Interesting week in the Magic Kingdom; they got destroyed at home by Toronto, lost at home to Chicago and Miami by a combined 4 points, and gave the Wiz their 4th win of the season. I'm not sure what to make of all that, but with all those losses, their WHAC dropped badly.

24

Sacramento

(26)

12

20

10

7

2

13

3

1

54.07

10.86

 


They just lost at Detroit, but besides for that, they beat the Knicks at the buzzer, the Cavs by 2 on the road (road win #2…go Kings!) and whalloped the all-of-a-sudden lowly Celtics. All good for a huge bump in WHAC. Good for you Sacramento.

25

Phoenix

(23)

12

21

10

7

2

14

4

0

52.86

-0.78

 


With their road record as awful as it is, losing at Indy, Minn, and OKC isn't going to really hurt your WHAC. Their one win at home against Philly pretty much balanced out those 3 losses. They need some road wins, or they'll stay down here for a while.

26

Detroit

(25)

12

22

9

8

3

14

2

0

51.41

7.55

 


Detroit actually did well for themselves, beating Miami, Milwaukee, and Sacramento all at home bringing them over .500 at home. Unfortunately, the same goes for all bottom-feeders, the NBA plays half the games away, so that's gotta improve.

27

Charlotte

(27)

8

23

5

12

3

11

2

2

42.33

2.85

 


They lost at Brooklyn and lost by 2 at home to the Hornets, but their much much needed road win against the Bulls gave them a positive WHAC for the week. They finally surpassed their win total from last season, but they've got a long way to go.

28

New Orleans

(29)

7

25

3

13

4

12

1

2

37.44

2.80

 


Losing to Toronto (H), Atlanta (H) and Houston (A) isn't the end of the world, but their close win at Charlotte is the only reason they didn't plummet (again) in this week's WHAC.

29

Cleveland

(28)

7

26

3

11

4

15

0

2

34.82

-3.32

 


It's unfortunate they couldn't pull out one win this week, as they lost by a total of 14 points, but there's a reason they're ranked 29th, they need some more wins for their young (and talented) team.

30

Washington

(30)

4

26

3

12

1

14

1

0

19.67

2.13

 


They beat the Magic at home, which I guess would be a very impressive win if you are by far the worst team in the NBA, but their 3 losses (good games played against Chi, Ind, and Dal) kept them alone in the dungeon. At least Jordan Crawford can be entertaining.


Agenda for next week...
Highlight the areas where WHAC differs from the actual standings
Discuss a potential stat change

As usual, please comment on literally anything. If you do, you'll prob get a shout out next week


- Joe.k



3 Comments

  1. might be interesting to do this on Mondays the same day the NBA power rankings come out so you could do a head to head comparison with them .

    by rickyddddd on 1/7/2013 1:03 PM
  2. interesting point you make there - I was actually checking through the power rankings on espn and nba today kind of doing just that! I guess we'll just see if I can be patient and not post too much on Thursday so i can do the rankings on monday!
    (i hope you liked my Most out of WHAC line - it fit the name perfectly@

    by joe.k on 1/7/2013 4:12 PM
  3. most out of whac did fit nicely . your top 6 matched the NBA power rankings and the rest were not far off . great job !

    by rickyddddd on 1/7/2013 10:24 PM
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