sarahhecht

Dec 26

Sarah’s 2011-2012 Season Predictions

By sarahhecht
It’s that time of year again. The regular season is here and it’s time for predictions! It’s always tough to map out how you think a season will play out, but this year it’s especially shaky due to the volume of games and the wildness of the schedule. So truth be told, these predictions are more like guesses and will most likely look ridiculous four months from now.

Also, I’ll be the first to admit I’m not a huge fan of predictions. I’ve got a competitive nature and this is just one more thing for me to try to get right. That said, I know many of you fans enjoy comparing early thoughts on the success of the team so who am I to say no? Here we go, enjoy!

TRAIL BLAZERS SEASON (39-27)

It took me a few tries to settle on my final prediction of 39 wins. My initial picks of wins and losses resulted in 41 wins. Thinking that was a bit high I perused the schedule again and adjusted a few games. I amended my original 2-2 series spilt with Oklahoma City to a 1-3 overall, I think they’re just that good. I also amended a win over Phoenix on January 6th to a loss. We’ll be on the second night of a home back-to-back with the LA Lakers on the first night. Honestly, I think we’ll get one of these two games, but it’s a toss up as to which one.

(There’s a game-by-game breakdown at the end of the blog for those of you interested in the nitty-gritty.)

WESTERN CONFERENCE STANDINGS
1. Oklahoma City
2. Dallas
3. LA Lakers
4. Portland
5. Memphis
6. LA Clippers
7. Spurs
Denver/Golden State

The Western Conference is funky. There are variables on the best coast that could change slightly and impact rankings. It’s going to be close, you can bet on that. With that in mind, here’s how I think the West will end. The Thunder will take the top seed, no doubt. Dallas is going to surprise with their somewhat reconstructed team and nab the second spot. (Yes, I’m sticking with this even after the ugly Christmas opener.) The Lakers are still the Lakers and if Kobe continues to stay “tough” through injury they’ll be fine. It’s a toss-up for me with the fourth and fifth seeds. I think Memphis is flying under the radar and could challenge the Trail Blazers for the four, but Portland will take it. The LA Clippers will be a playoff team, but they’re not cracking the top five. Even with CP3 and Blake Griffin it will take some time. The aging Spurs will make their last push before rebuilding and nab the seventh seed. I couldn’t decide on the eighth seed, Denver will be good enough to take it, but Golden State is my sleeper, I like the talent down there.

Whew, they don’t call it the wild west for nothing.

EASTERN CONFERENCE STANDINGS
1. Miami
2. Chicago
3. New York
4. Boston
5. Orlando
6. New Jersey
7. Atlanta
Indiana

The top five in the East are a pretty easy go, it’s the final three that get a bit more complicated. I put new Jersey in the sixth spot with the thought that Dwight Howard ends up there by the trade deadline. That left me with Philadelphia and Indiana as the two contenders for the eighth seed. And with the Pacers off-season gets I leaned in their direction.

FINALS: Oklahoma City vs. Miami

I know who I WANT to win this finals matchup. I would love to see Oklahoma City go all the way and Kevin Durant win the MVP, but I doubt that’s going to happen. Dwayne Wade will win another ring. (Notice how I left out the other guy.) Logic aside, here’s to hoping the karma police strike again and keep a ring out of South Beach.

TRAIL BLAZERS GAME-BY-GAME

12/26 Philadelphia WIN
12/27 Sacramento WIN
12/29 Denver WIN
1/1 @ LA Clippers WIN
1/3 @ Oklahoma City LOSS
1/5 LA Lakers WIN
1/6 Phoenix LOSS
1/8 Cleveland WIN
1/10 LA Clippers WIN
1/11 Orlando LOSS
1/13 @ San Antonio LOSS
1/14 @ Houston WIN
1/16 @ New Orleans LOSS
1/18 @ Atlanta LOSS
1/20 @ Toronto WIN
1/21 @ Detroit WIN
1/23 Sacramento WIN
1/24 Memphis WIN
1/25 @ Golden State LOSS
1/27 Phoenix WIN
1/30 @ Utah LOSS
2/1 Charlotte WIN
2/2 @ Sacramento LOSS
2/4 Denver WIN
2/6 Oklahoma City WIN
2/8 Houston WIN
2/10 @ New Orleans LOSS
2/11 @ Dallas LOSS
2/14 Washington WIN
2/15 @ Golden State LOSS
2/16 LA Clippers WIN
2/18 Atlanta WIN
2/20 @ LA Lakers LOSS
2/21 San Antonio WIN
2/29 @ Denver LOSS
3/1 Miami LOSS
3/3 Minny WIN
3/5 New Orleans WIN
3/7 @ Minny WIN
3/9 @ Boston LOSS
3/10 @ Washington WIN
3/13 @ Indiana WIN
3/14 @ New York LOSS
3/16 @ Chicago LOSS
3/18 @ Oklahoma City LOSS
3/20 Milwaukee WIN
3/22 Memphis WIN
3/23 @ LA Lakers LOSS
3/25 Golden State WIN
3/27 Oklahoma City LOSS
3/29 New Orleans  WIN
3/30 @ LA Clippers LOSS
4/1 Minny WIN
4/2 Utah WIN
4/4 New Jersey WIN
4/6 @ Dallas LOSS
4/7 @ Milwaukee WIN
4/9 Houston WIN
4/11 Golden State LOSS
4/13 Dallas WIN
4/15 @ Sacramento WIN
4/16 @ Phoenix LOSS
4/18 Utah WIN
4/21 @ Memphis LOSS
4/23 @ San Antonio LOSS
4/26 @ Utah WIN

6 Comments

  1. My hope is that they can have the same type of success the 99 team did the last time there was a lockout shortened season. Go Blazers!

    by blazerdarren77 on 12/26/2011 4:46 PM
  2. I agree with most of it Sarah, but I think we will get wins @ New Orleans and @ Atlanta and "maybe" one more @ The Clippers. Otherwise pretty spot on considering the back to backs and travel. ;-)

    peace out,
    daddy

    by daddylogan on 12/26/2011 4:55 PM
  3. not bad; not bad. i think the blazers are better, deeper and more balanced this year than last. i took the winning percentage for the 48 wins last year, and you get 39 wins. like i said, i think we'll be better and will come together as a team during that tough playoff stretch. i'm going with 43 wins. we will be the third seed.

    ~ KMM

    by Kassandra on 12/26/2011 11:29 PM
  4. Miss Sarah and Miss Kassandra:

    I have read both of your predictions, and I couldn't debate too much with either.
    I have the advantage of the second day of the NBA so I have a little more of a pattern to realize then both of you very little of course, but one thing for sure btbtb will be a big factor in the final outcome.

    For right now Sarah, I think I would put Philly in the play-offs just because of their second unit.
    Early observations tells me that Orlando and Boston will slide further down one because of age and depth, and the other is the same reason you gave Dallas the second seed, Orlando will slip if they lose Howard to Dallas, It is rumored that Daren Williams and Howard will end up in Dallas, if that happens early enough then it will impact the play-offs both on the East coast and the West coast.

    I think Kobe's knees are going to be a big factor in the Lakers success, If Portland can win against Sac tonight, that will give us a lot of hope and LA a lot of doubt.

    The one thing I do agree on is that OKC and Miami will be in the finals, but to early to say who would win. With no major injury to either team, I would say Miami.

    by Hg on 12/27/2011 8:13 AM
  5. Sarah, I know you can't come across as a "Blazer Homer" - you wouldn't be as credible...so let me be one for you. I have the Blazers at 47-19. I felt good about the Blazers last year and the year before, but there was always an element of HOPE, hoping Rudy will be hot, or hoping that LaMarcus will be aggressive. This year there are so many options...that are tried and true. Only concern is in the middle with Camby and health, and hoping we make a push for Priz, you gotta think he's watching these guys and liking what he's seeing.

    Keep up the good work Sarah, enjoy following your blog and videos!

    by BendBlazerFan on 12/30/2011 11:15 AM
  6. BendBlazerFan from a Prineville Blazer fan, I think Joel would have been a Blazer if he had not wanted to wait until after the holidays to make up his mind on retiring. As it is we have 15 players under contract with very little money, so to drop one and get Joel may be too expensive. I like the thought though.

    by Hg on 12/30/2011 11:39 AM
  1. Leave a comment

Blog Contributors

Most Commented

The most commented posts in the past month

Blog Archives