Off-season Plan C
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  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/10/2012 1:17 PM

    Step One Sign and Trade Batum to Minnesota
    Blazers Receive Darko Milicic, Derrick Williams and a Protected  1st Round Pick (13-20)
    Minnesota Receives Nicolas Batum
    Why Portland would accept? 1st round pick and D. Williams are the two biggest pieces in this deal for Portland Williams would get a chance to replace Batum and if he is not going to be the long term option then he has trade value as he could probably command a low first round pick.  The trade is not perfect but accepting Milicic instead of Webster guarantees us the inclusion of the first round pick.
    Why Minnesota would accept? Batum they really want him and they need better wing play. In addition to getting Batum Portland taking Williams and Milicic allows the team to cut Webster and Miller opening up enough space to sign Roy while leaving enough room to go after a third free agent. It also allows them to save their amnesty option for Wesley Johnson if he does not improve this season.

    Step Two Trade Wesley Matthews to Cleveland
    Blazers Receive Luke Walton and a Protected 1st Round Pick (8-20)
    Cleveland Receive Wesley Matthews
    Why Portland would accept? A lot of this trade has to do with the approximate $20.6 million Matthews is scheduled to make over the next three seasons. The other major component is netting a potential lottery pick. Portland opens up lots of playing time for Elliot Williams and Will Barton in this deal and gets a likely high pick in exchange.
    Why Cleveland would accept? Matthews is an experienced and hardworking SG who is willing to defend, start or come off the bench. He would be an excellent mentor for Dion Waiters without standing in his way. Matthews can hold down the starting spot until Waiters is ready and challenge him every day in practice. Giving up a potential lottery pick is a hard pill to swallow but the Blazers taking on the ugly contract of Luke Walton makes it easier.

    Step Three Trade Lamarcus Aldridge to Charlotte
    This is the most controversial move of them all but it is one Portland should consider in order to rebuild. LA can be traded to numerous teams for young talent such as Thomas Robinson, Demarcus Cousins, Derrick Favors etc so this trade is not the only one out there.

    Portland Receives Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, DeSagana Diop, an un-protected first round pick (2013), a top 5 protected pick (2014), and the return of the Blazers pick owed from the Gerald Wallace deal.
    Charlotte Receives Lamarcus Aldridge and a second round pick in 2013 if Portland receives a top 5 pick.
    Why Portland would accept? Multiple first round picks and long term cap flexibility. Portland gets a potential long term starter at SF in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist they also receive three additional first round picks. Trading a star like LA is never easily but getting a long term starter and what is essentially 3 lottery picks makes it easier.
    Why Charlotte would accept? Lamarcus Aldridge he is an all-star caliber player who will help improve the team immediately. He is also the type of player who is good enough that Charlotte could market to recruit additional free agents something they could not do before the trade. Giving up an unprotected pick is always scary especially when you consider the team is likely to be in the lottery next year but owning Detroit’s pick from the Ben Gordon trade makes this easier. Thanks to that same trade Charlotte is essentially only missing one draft either in 2013 or 2014 that is pretty easy to accept for a guaranteed all-star talent.

    Step Four Trade Luke Babbitt to New Orleans
    Portland Receives 2013 Second round pick 31-40
    New Orleans Receives Luke Babbitt
    Why Portland would accept? With Williams and Kidd-Gilchrist in town Babbitt would be buried on the bench moving him for a high second round pick seems like the best move available.
    Why New Orleans would accept? They need depth Babbitt can shoot and they would only be giving up a second round pick for a former first round talent.

    Step Five Sign Joel Freeland
    With no real front court presence on this team bringing over the big Englishman it is important. Portland needs to see what they have in Freeland and Leonard so getting him suited up on a team where he can see a lot of playing time is important.

    Step Five Play the Rookies
    After trading most of the veteran presence on the team it is important to see what the young players can give you. Playing Damian Lillard, Nolan Smith, Elliot Williams, Will Barton, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Derrick Williams, and Meyers Leonard is important to see what this team actually has.

    Step Six Trade Deadline trade Kurt Thomas, Nolan Smith, the rights to Victor Claver and Derrick Williams for picks.
    Portland Receives a mid first round pick (14-20) for Williams, a low first round pick (24-30) for the combination of Claver and Smith and a second for Thomas.
    Why Portland would accept? Thomas has no long term value on a rebuilding team so getting something for him would be important. I do not see Nolan improving much this season so Portland would be wise to move him before his value completely disappears. Claver is not the long term option for Portland at SF so getting value for him is important. Williams is only being dealt because he can land a nice draft pick and to help Portland tank in the second half.

    2013 NBA Draft
    Portland has their pick likely to be high lottery
    Target Shabazz Muhammad
    This kid is an elite scorer if he develops like many believe we are looking at the next James Harden if not the next Kobe Bryant he is the type of talent that can change the course of a franchise.

    Charlotte’s unprotected pick also likely to be lottery
    Target Nelrens Noel
    This pick could vary but I believe it will be around the top five making a Noel a potential target. Noel is not the next Anthony Davis but he is still an elite talent. His defense is incredible but his weight will be an issue in the NBA if he can add 10 pound this year in college and then a few more before the draft it would go a long way to making him NBA ready. Right now look for an upside of Bismark Biyombo, Serge Ibaka or a young Marcus Camby then cross your fingers and hope the flat top can become the next Garnett or Davis.

    Cleveland’s likely low lottery pick
    Target Tony Mitchell
    Michael Kidd-Gilchrist will be a star in this league I believe but Portland would be smart to get a back up just in case his aggressive style lands him on the injured list. Tony Mitchell is a SF/PF who is an elite defender and a great rebounder. He is likely more a PF in the NBA but he is certainly capable of playing either spot. Think Keyon Martin.

    Mid-round pick from D. Williams trade
    Target Aaron Craft
    Craft was the best on ball defender in college basketball last year and provided he makes the expected fully recovery from ankle surgery that should be the case this year as well. He is not a great offensive player but he is a great defender and a good passer and would be the perfect complement to the offensive minded Lillard. Think Kirk Hinrich.

    Minnesota mid-round pick Veteran Trade Fodder
    Low first from Smith and Claver deal Veteran Trade Fodder

    Three second round picks own, Babbitt deal, Thomas deal Trade for low first round pick
    Target Dario Saric
    With Mitchell projecting more as a PF finding a back up for Kidd-Gilchrist remains a concern. Saric is probably Europe’s best young prospect so while he is likely a few years away from the NBA he is certainly worth stashing and will likely increase in value as he improves overseas.  He is a long term keeper/ trade fodder. 

    2013 Trailblazers Depth Chart
    PG
    Damian Lillard, Aaron Craft
    SG Shabazz Muhammad, Elliot Williams, Will Barton
    SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Tony Mitchell, Will Barton
    PF Nelrens Noel, Tony Mitchell, Joel Freeland
    C Meyers Leonard, Joel Freeland

    On the surface it looks like we will need front court help and that is very much a possibility.  Portland will have a lot of cap space so going after someone like Serge Ibaka, Josh Smith, Al Jefferson, Paul Milsap, or Nikola Pekovic on that list only Ibaka is restricted. Plus we can always add depth through the draft with the two unused picks or trade them for a veteran not on the list.

    This team is full of elite defenders we will just need to get some offense from the 3, 4 and 5 position. I am not sure exactly what we will get from the team but the prospects are intriguing and such a young team is bound to improve each year and until they do keep adding a high lottery pick until something changes.  I see that team being a contender in 3 seasons then again there is no guarantee any of that happens but there certainly is nice potential in rebuilding. 

    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. Ricky
    Ricky
    Posts: 541

    Posted 07/10/2012 1:49 PM

    I am sorry cmeese47 I am usually in tune with your ideas but not this time.  I think your resulting team would be too young and would get killed in NBA competition.  We would become the Charlotte Bobcats 2013 2014 2015.  I do not think trading all of our assets for draft choices is a strong move for the future.  I enjoyed your steps to the future but I hope we don't do them.  I would like in your step one to include Pekovic in your first trade then I would endorse step one but I would not endorse step two through step three.  These assets are something to build around. 
    I am a fan of
  1. mdmgrand
    mdmgrand
    Posts: 18

    Posted 07/10/2012 2:16 PM

    Stick with the first idea... Batum for Darko, Williams, and  Protected Pick....

    Darko can't really score, but he can pass for a big guy and block shots...  Williams is a PF, he wasn't particularly effective as a SF, so this could create lineup problems since Aldridge does not like to play C, even though according to Hollinger, the Blazers are much better when he's at center.  I like this idea, try Babbit out and see if Williams can transition to SF.

    All the other ideas just wouldn't and shouldn't happen.
    I am a fan of
  1. Blazer247
    Blazer247
    Posts: 591

    Posted 07/10/2012 2:37 PM

    Personally, this feels way too theoretical and pure-numbers based to ever be realistic (plus it seems like most of the eventual team you're talking about is made of guys who haven't proven NBA-worth at all yet). Not only are there lots of things that don't show up on the stats sheet that make the Aldridge and Wesley trades a bad idea, but overall you've just got wayyy too many steps before you achieve the goal for it to all happen. It's unrealistic to try and plan things that far in advance, because there's a "few" other teams out there that could screw it up. Also, while this may be appealing long-term in videogames or fantasy leagues, Fans in Portland would scream bloody murder, and they don't deserve that after the last few years.

    I just don't see the results being guaranteed enough to be worth the changes, and the amount of time it would take to pull off would be near insufferable.

    Instead of gutting the team and filling everything with college-age potential, which would then take more time to reach their peak, why don't we just keep the majority of what we have and help them to get to their prime? I'm not saying we shouldn't make any moves, but it seems like you're taking too many steps backwards, in the hopes that after even more small steps, we'd eventually be a little ahead of where we are now... no deal.
    I am a fan of BLAZER BASKETBALL. Not drafts, not business, not trades, not David Stern. Just BLAZER BASKETBALL.
  1. diablo2689
    diablo2689
    Posts: 122

    Posted 07/10/2012 3:58 PM

    Well that's 10 mins I will never get back. That was just cruel cmeese. You have to know that 3/4 of what you said was complete BS. No team in their right minds would blow up their team down to minor role players, tank the season, and then hope that rookies/undrafted and still unscouted talent would lead their team to victory. I thought you were smarter than this.. You deserve everyone that read this an apology. Shame on you.. shame. on. you.
    I am a fan of
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/10/2012 4:01 PM

    This post was clearly designed to be the worst case scenario but I think the possibilities are intriguing nonetheless. This summer we had two lottery picks and 20 million in cap space.  On my scenario we would have 7 first round draft picks and 25 million in cap space. Olshey talks about collecting assets well I can not imagine more assets than that. 

    If Portland just kept 3 picks they could turn the other 4 into quality veterans. The perk of the plan was the rebuild could be fast or slow. 

    While I do agree Portland fans deserve better than seeing the team rebuild I would much rather watch this team than a bloated 80 million dollar payroll who cannot rotate on defense, do not always play hard, bitch and complain to the media, get their coach fired and still lose, which we saw last year. 

    The question is other than Lamarcus Aldridge who does this current team have to get excited about? The team will be starting a rookie from the Big Sky at PG, the hard working but inconsistent Wesley Matthews at SG, a likely disgruntled Nicolas Batum at SF, our franchise player at PF and a raw rookie center who did not dominate in college. Not sure we got a playoff team there.
    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/10/2012 4:16 PM

    Posted By diablo2689 on 07/10/2012 3:58 PM
    Well that's 10 mins I will never get back. That was just cruel cmeese. You have to know that 3/4 of what you said was complete BS. No team in their right minds would blow up their team down to minor role players, tank the season, and then hope that rookies/undrafted and still unscouted talent would lead their team to victory. I thought you were smarter than this.. You deserve everyone that read this an apology. Shame on you.. shame. on. you.

    Probably not but then again look at the 2002/2003 Cleveland Cavaliers
    1 Carlos Boozer F-C 6-9 258 November 20, 1981 R Duke University
    3 Tierre Brown G 6-2 189 June 3, 1979 1 McNeese State University
    12 Bimbo Coles G 6-1 180 April 22, 1968 12 Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
    31 Ricky Davis G 6-6 195 September 23, 1979 4 University of Iowa
    52 DeSagana Diop C 7-0 300 January 30, 1982 1
    32 Tyrone Hill F 6-9 240 March 19, 1968 12 Xavier University
    11 Zydrunas Ilgauskas C 7-3 238 June 5, 1975 4
    33 Jumaine Jones F 6-8 218 February 10, 1979 3 University of Georgia
    4 Chris Mihm C 7-0 265 July 16, 1979 2 University of Texas at Austin
    21 Darius Miles F 6-9 210 October 9, 1981 2
    10 Milt Palacio G 6-3 195 February 7, 1978 3 Colorado State University
    17 Smush Parker G 6-4 190 June 1, 1981 R Fordham University
    13 Michael Stewart C 6-10 230 April 25, 1975 5 University of California
    2 Dajuan Wagner G 6-2 200 February 4, 1983 R University of Memphis

    That is an ugly roster right there and in two seasons they were above .500 and three in the playoffs. Yes that team got Lebron James but whatever team gets Shabazz Muhammad will be getting the same kind of franchise changing impact. He has the motor of MKG, with the jump shot of Kobe and the finishing skills of Lebron at the rim. Defensively he will be stout as well. So no I will not apologize for that.
    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. Blazer247
    Blazer247
    Posts: 591

    Posted 07/10/2012 4:49 PM

    I repeat:

    It's simply not worth giving up everything our team has now, whether that's enough to make it all the way or not, in order to get lucky with THAT MANY steps in a plan that we'd just be rolling the dice on whether or not it actually brings significant improvement.

    You say that your team above would be better than the team we had last year... but so would the team we have THIS YEAR without doing anything you suggested. AND it wouldn't require fans to sit on their hands for multiple years.

    Obviously you have the skills to be able to really look into the stats and analyze. I know you can come up with an option that is safer, more guaranteed results, and all around better than this.
    I am a fan of BLAZER BASKETBALL. Not drafts, not business, not trades, not David Stern. Just BLAZER BASKETBALL.
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/10/2012 5:08 PM

    I respect you Blazer but honestly what is your prognosis for our current roster. 

    Right now we have 10 players on our roster if we match Batum add Claver and Freeland and your up to 12. 

    I am not sure a 12 man roster of 
    PG Lillard, Smith
    SG Matthews, E.  Williams, Barton
    SF Batum, Claver, Babbitt
    PF Alridge, Thomas
    C Freeland, Leonard 
    is a playoff team even more distressing is that team will only have 8 million in cap space if no one else is signed but those players. Assuming that team misses the playoffs then take away around 3 million for the draft pick next year. That is 8 players with 3 years or less experience. Not much different from my 10.
    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. Blazer247
    Blazer247
    Posts: 591

    Posted 07/10/2012 5:14 PM

    Exactly, not much different. So why make all those crazy changes like getting rid of the few players who we know for sure can produce, just to get something that's not much different? That pretty much answers itself.

    I'm not pretending that it solves the problem, but I don't think your solution does any better of a job at getting us out of the rut we're in.

    You know I respect ya dude, but this just does not make sense to me.
    I am a fan of BLAZER BASKETBALL. Not drafts, not business, not trades, not David Stern. Just BLAZER BASKETBALL.
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/10/2012 5:31 PM

    I just felt like my rookies have higher upside but I get your point. I just felt the flexibility of my roster was important because I still had 2 unused picks in 2013, lots of cap space in 2013 and 2 more draft picks in 2014. 

    Andrew Wiggins is coming in 2014 the NBA's next Kevin Durant. 
    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/10/2012 10:52 PM

    <object style="height: 390px; width: 640px"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/Dg66gYbNqz8?version=3&feature=player_detailpage"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Dg66gYbNqz8?version=3&feature=player_detailpage" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="640" height="360"></object>
    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/10/2012 10:52 PM

    Lame why won't it accept my HTML code
    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/11/2012 10:00 AM

    By pulling the offer from Hibbert and the signing of Joel Freeland and likely Victor Claver today Portland has officially stopped retooling and has begun rebuilding. As of right now the team will have 8 players on the opening roster with less than 3 years NBA experience.

    PG Damian Lillard, Nolan Smith
    SG Elliot Williams, Will Barton
    SF Luke Babbitt, Victor Claver
    PF
    C Joel Freeland, Meyers Leonard

    So much for two lottery picks and a ton of cap space. 
    Here is my prediction for the Blazers off-season
    Sign Freeland
    Sign Claver
    Match Batum
    Resign Pryzbilla
    Sign Hickson 
    Sign John Lucas III or CJ Watson And that is your 15 man roster. 
    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/11/2012 5:27 PM

    Portland might get two first round picks for Batum that sounds like an excellent start regardless of who the veteran SF was.
    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/11/2012 10:55 PM

    Hickson at 4 million certainly fits into my plan excellent move
    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/12/2012 3:47 PM

    With Batum signing the offer sheet and no longer being sign and trade eligible step one must change. Which in turn will likely change step 3. 

    If Nicolas Batum elevates his game significantly step one becomes a mute point; however, based on the high likelihood that he does not live up to this monster contract. 

    Portland should trade Batum to Charlotte for Michael Kidd-Gilchrist; however, because of CBA restrictions Portland would need Batum's permission to be traded anywhere and could not end up in Minnesota at all. Otherwise we would have to wait until summer of next year to trade him to any team without his permission. 

    Once Batum has been traded then Portland can move Lamarcus Alridge to whatever team lands Shabazz Muhammad. If we land Muhammad then we could offer him to New Orleans to see if they will swap him for Anthony Davis.

    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. Blazer247
    Blazer247
    Posts: 591

    Posted 07/12/2012 6:27 PM

    Still seems like way too many steps, just to get us in a similair situation as we're in now, hoping for development, and yet it would cost the team at least a year or two of rioting, angry fans and underachieving on the court.

    I don't get why you're pushing this so much. Put all that energy to something more constructive for the Blazers instead of trying to change who the Blazers are!
    I am a fan of BLAZER BASKETBALL. Not drafts, not business, not trades, not David Stern. Just BLAZER BASKETBALL.
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/12/2012 7:45 PM

    Similar situation much better upside in my opinion. Going into the next summer that team would have 9 first round picks over two years with the high probability of at least 5 of them being lottery picks. In addition a team full of rookies would have a lot of salary flexibility to make a big move or two if we got close to being contenders. 

    I am sorry I am just not buying Nolan Smith, Luke Babbit as part of a championship contenders rotation. Leonard has potential but won't be ready for 3 seasons. Lillard should be ready sooner but it will take him 3 years to become a viable championship caliber PG. Not sure I see a whole lot of upside on Claver. 

    That drops this team down to 5 prospects meaning mine has a lot more potential and they are clearly better defensively. 
    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/14/2012 11:36 AM

    Trade Batum already so we can get this plan in motion.
    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/16/2012 9:40 AM

    Neil why did you have to piss all over my plan. Batum will be a Blazer and he will either succeed or fail but he won't be traded because no one will pay him 13.4 million a season after that ridiculous trade kicker. 
    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. billyamick47
    billyamick47
    Posts: 168

    Posted 07/17/2012 11:53 AM

    Man this plan would have gotten off to a great start getting D. Williams and 2 picks. Not sure why we need to trade Matthews who seems to fit the hard working style you like. Although I do see the allure of Muhammad. I also think we could do better than that for LA even though I do like MKG.
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/17/2012 4:12 PM

    I agree we could do better for LA than that but I liked that trade because it seemed to offer the chance for multiple high lottery picks. Including an unrestricted pick which would have given us two chances at Shabazz Muhammad.
    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
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