Draft Philosophy: Need Or BPA
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  1. DHawes22
    DHawes22
    Posts: 6488

    Posted 04/14/2012 3:03 PM

    What Is Your Draft Philosophy?
    Draft For Need (6)
     21%
    Take The Best Player Available (23)
     79%


    Most Trail Blazers fans would agree that Portland needs an upgrade in the backcourt, mostly at point guard, and needs some youth at the center position. But do you address those needs through the draft or gamble and see if those areas of concern can be upgraded through free agency. More so then any other year I can remember, the Trail Blazers actually have a choice to determine how and when to improve the roster. If the ping pong balls fall their way, Rip City will have two lottery picks on the roster in the fall of 2012 and thanks to the work of the front office, the Trail Blazers could have upwards of 20$ million in salary cap room to go after any free agent they choose.

    Those who would address the guard play and center through the draft would point to Portland's history with free agents and their inability to reel in the "big fish." Either our toxic offers to restricted free agents were matched (Paul Millsap) or our main target said "Thanks, but no thanks" (Hedo Turkoglu). And while the draft is not loaded with centers or point guards, there still is talent at either position. UCONN's Andre Drummond has been compared to Amare Stoudemire and could be available if the Nets' pick lands between 4-5. North Carolina's Tyler Zeller just came off a 20 point/22 rebound game in the NCAA Tournament, the first such performance since a guy named Tim Duncan from Wake Forest in 1997.

    Although there are only two point guards most mock drafts have slated to go in the lottery, there is no doubt Portland needs to pick a point guard and roll with them. There has been so much turnover at the lead guard position since Damon Stoudamire left. We've seen  the likes of Jarrett Jack, Steve Blake, Sergio Rodriguez, Jerryd Bayless, and Andre Miller come and go with none of the aforementioned playing more then three consecutive seasons in the Rose City. Portland needs stability at point. The two guards most talked about with Portland's pick (currently #11) are Damian Lillard from Weber Stare and North Carolina's Kendall Marshall. Marshall lead all collegiate players in total assists (330), assists-turnover ratio (3.5), and was named the Bob Cousy award winner which goes to the NCAA's top point guard. Lillard, on the other hand, had the third highest Player Efficiency Rating (33.8) of anyone in the NCAA. Anthony Davis was No. 2 to show just how impressive that stat is for Damian Lillard.

    But does drafting for need really maximize assets? What if a player like Michael Kidd-Gilchrist or Thomas Robinson slips? Would you pass over either player just because we already have a great power forward and small forward already in place? Those draft picks are valuable and make sure to draft the best value. You can always trade the player later on for a better package or just find a way to make it work on the court. Case and point was the 2006 Draft. Portland went out and traded UP for power forward LaMarcus Aldridge, even with double-double machine Zach Randolph already on the roster. They also made sure Brandon Roy would be on the roster even with a 19-year-old Martell Webster pegged as shooting guard of the future. We all know what happened. Martell was moved to small forward and after a year of playing together, Portland decided to ship off Randolph in order to make way for Aldridge. What's great about the Blazers' situation is if they draft a power forward, Aldridge is versatile enough to play center to make it work and it a small forward is drafted, Nicolas Batum has shown the ability to thrive at shooting guard.

    There is no perfect answer. A lot depends on where the team currently stands, how much of a talent influx the roster needs, and the versatility of the current players. In an ideal world, the best player would be a position of need and be available where the Trail Blazers pick, and that could be the case if a guy like Drummond is there where Portland picks, but most likely, the front office will have a decision to make: take the best player available or fill the need right now. What's your philosophy, and why?
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  1. jamsmashers
    jamsmashers
    Posts: 297

    Posted 04/14/2012 3:49 PM

    this is an obvious question, if the position you need is in the general area of where you pick, then pick the position, otherwise pick the best player, but always pick the best player possible, do not draft someone too early
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  1. jamsmashers
    jamsmashers
    Posts: 297

    Posted 04/14/2012 3:52 PM

    michael kidd slips, id pick, slip batum to sg, and trade mathews for a player, and mayble includ future pick and portlands pic,
    dragic, batum, kidd, LA, lopez, and mathews for a 6th man of the yr candidate
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  1. DHawes22
    DHawes22
    Posts: 6488

    Posted 04/14/2012 4:31 PM

    I used to be a draft for need guy until the 2005 draft. I believed the Telfair hype and thought he was the point guard of the future. I wanted no part of CP3 or Deron Williams. Boy was I wrong. Even if you have a young talent at a position, on this team it could be Elliot Williams, you still take the best player available and let them battle it out in training camp. The best man will win and your team will be stronger in the long run.
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  1. Herr
    Herr
    Posts: 643

    Posted 04/14/2012 6:41 PM

    Best available, period.  There is no one on this team I feel comfortable building around.  Not even LaMarcus.   Get someone we can build around, be it draft or be it trading.  You need a player that can score and make decisions with the ball.  You cannot build around a powerforward.  A backcourt player needs to be the leader of this team.

    Also, wouldn't the Blazers be the 9th spot in the Draft since they're the 9th worst team in the league?
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  1. alanb
    alanb
    Posts: 1

    Posted 04/14/2012 7:04 PM

    Pick Drummond and Lamb... there you have Oden and Roy reincarnated but healthy.
  1. DHawes22
    DHawes22
    Posts: 6488

    Posted 04/14/2012 7:25 PM

    Posted By Herr on 04/14/2012 6:41 PM
    Best available, period.  There is no one on this team I feel comfortable building around.  Not even LaMarcus.   Get someone we can build around, be it draft or be it trading.  You need a player that can score and make decisions with the ball.  You cannot build around a powerforward.  A backcourt player needs to be the leader of this team.

    Also, wouldn't the Blazers be the 9th spot in the Draft since they're the 9th worst team in the league?
    We are 11th right now, Herr. And unless something drastic changes, they should end up there as well. The Wolves have three more losses and are in 10th (although that picks goes to New Orleans) and the Bucks, who are in 12th, have two fewer losses.

    NBA Standings as of April 14, 2012
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  1. Choong Huh
    Choong Huh
    Posts: 67

    Posted 04/14/2012 7:28 PM

    Drafting for talent has its flaws as well. Obviously, it neglects the immediate needs of the team and can leave a hole on the roster. It also creates a jam in the position. Portland does this a lot. Luke Babbit, a mid first-rounder saw almost no playing time behind Gerald Wallace and Nic Batum. This guy had a glorious college career and became a MWC player of the year. No team should turn him into a bench warmer, but the jam at the SF position made that happen. Portland drafted Elliot Williams, with Rudy Fernandez and Brandon Roy already on the roster (AND they went on to sign Matthews!). The team ignored the need of youth at the center position in a hope that Greg Oden will have a healthy season one day. I do expect this to change this season with Greg and Camby gone. I think Portland will definitely use the 1st round picks to draft for need, and might even trade up for Drummond if he is taken earlier. 
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  1. jamsmashers
    jamsmashers
    Posts: 297

    Posted 04/14/2012 9:38 PM

    obviously this is a draft of pf and sf, but none of the players outside anthony davis will be an all star in 3 yrs, lots of good players that can help a team getting to the next level if you draft right, but obviously the only boundary I would pick on drafting, is do not pick a pf with the nj pick.  outside that anything is good, sf and kick batum to sg, sg, C (not likely with nj pick) pg, do what it takes to get better and take the best available option, the team is extremely versitile at this point and any combination will do, just have a clear goal and do not take risks
     
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  1. barnettfan
    barnettfan
    Posts: 392

    Posted 04/14/2012 10:53 PM

    Ok I am going to get hate mail over this one. Trade LA for Rondo and a scrub ( I just dont like deronW as a fit for the blazers) Celtics might go for this because of an ancient Garnett. Since the draft is deep 2 high single digit draft picks may net us a trade up to # 1 and pick up Davis. if not than keep our picks to best available and try to get a PF/C and a sF/SG use our cap space later for a 5 slot.
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  1. diablo2689
    diablo2689
    Posts: 122

    Posted 04/14/2012 10:55 PM

        We really do have a lot of options as a team. Say we keep at least LA, Batum, Hickson, Matthews, EW, Babbit, and N. Smith. We have the ability to move a lot of players around to different spots depending on how we draft. I think the players that will have an impact in the nba + be a good fit for our team + we have a chance at getting would include; Drummond, Beal, Barnes, Lamb, Jones, and maybe Lillard or Marshall. I am not sold on either Point being a big time NBA PG. I say we use our flexability to obtain a PG through FA or trade. We need to get a PG like Rondo, Williams, or Wall to be a contender in this league. Nash is old, Dragic isn't bad at all, but not a solid defender. The defensive liability goes for Calderon as well. In my opinion, i think we could have a great team with either Dragic or Calderon, i just don't feel we would have a contending team. 
        A realistic ideal draft for us would be get Drummond and Lamb/Barnes or Beal/Barnes and Jones. I think Sullinger will be good, but we really don't have room for an undersized PF, and in my opinion he won't be easy/worthy to trade. I say we pass on the Zeller brothers too!! Not worth it to me in my opinion to get either one. I don't see them being big impact players down the road. They will be suplimental role players like a Robin Lopez.. I want a Brook Lopez from this draft (that doesn't get hurt as much).
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  1. Laker Hater
    Laker Hater
    Posts: 2

    Posted 04/15/2012 8:38 PM

    -With our first pick I think we take the best available player. Drummond, Beal, Lamb, Barnes..
    -Second pick we go after need.. Preferably Marshall, maybe Lillard. Possibly Tyler Zeller, could be great off the bench and could use the size.
    -Free agency..
      We go hard after Roy Hibbert. Big bucks. Dude is great!
      Obviously go after the best young budget PG. Dragic, Brooks, Sessions,

    How about packaging Wesley, and both picks for Rondo, and go after Eric Gordon and Roy Hibbert in free agency. That would mean we have Hibbert, Aldridge, Batum, Gordon, Rondo. That's dreaming big. I'm not sure we have the cap space to make that happen.

    So many things that could happen. Can't wait to see what happens.  

     
    I am a fan of ...the blazers...duh
  1. ClydeFrog
    ClydeFrog
    Posts: 975

    Posted 04/16/2012 1:46 PM

    Posted By Choong Huh on 04/14/2012 7:28 PM
    Drafting for talent has its flaws as well. Obviously, it neglects the immediate needs of the team and can leave a hole on the roster. It also creates a jam in the position. Portland does this a lot. Luke Babbit, a mid first-rounder saw almost no playing time behind Gerald Wallace and Nic Batum. This guy had a glorious college career and became a MWC player of the year. No team should turn him into a bench warmer, but the jam at the SF position made that happen. Portland drafted Elliot Williams, with Rudy Fernandez and Brandon Roy already on the roster (AND they went on to sign Matthews!). The team ignored the need of youth at the center position in a hope that Greg Oden will have a healthy season one day. I do expect this to change this season with Greg and Camby gone. I think Portland will definitely use the 1st round picks to draft for need, and might even trade up for Drummond if he is taken earlier. 
    That is a valid argument and one I did not think of before I was going to put in my reply. I still think you take BPA and either make it work or trade that player later on in the draft for a better package. Always try to maximize value.

    Did we really ignore the need for a youth movement at center in the draft? If we go back to 2010, the Trail Blazers took Babbitt at 16, Williams at 22, and Johnson at 34. After Babbitt was picked, the only centers picked were Daniel Orton and Kevin Seraphin. Orton is a complete bust who doesn't even get in the game, even with Dwight Howard injured and while I like Seraphin, I think Babbitt and Williams are better players now and will be in the future. The likes of Soloman Alabi, Jerome Jordan, and Hamady Ndiaye were the other center options available instead of Armon. And if we should have traded up, only DeMarcus Cousins would have been a great get but we didn't have the ammunition to get all the way up to pick #4 to get him. I'm sure glad we didn't trade up for Cole Aldrich or Larry Sanders through.

    Now, if we look to 2011, there's no denying we screwed the pooch by picking Nolan Smith. Not only was it a mistake to draft a point guard by thinking there were better options in free agency but it was a mistake taking Smith because we "needed" a point guard and reached way too far for him. We could have probably bought a second round pick and snagged him there. And while Kenneth Faried doesn't help us out at center, we passed on a player who was not only BPA at the time of the pick but a huge need. We wouldn't be worried about paying or not paying Hickson right now if we had only listened to all of the fans who knew Faried should have been the right pick.

    The bottom line is, centers are so difficult to find. Good ones that is. So don't just go out and target all of the centers just because they are seven feet tall. Take the correct player at the right position in the draft and make it work. If it happens to be a position of need, even better. Lord knows we can't afford screwing up again this year and picking a guy like Meyers Leonard or Tyler Zeller just because we "need" a young seven-footer.
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  1. D_pickett
    D_pickett
    Posts: 726

    Posted 04/16/2012 6:50 PM

    I usually believe in the BPA philosophy simply because you can sacrifice a lot of talent going for need. Also, with a team like the Blazers who only somewhat have a "go-to" guy, it's important to bring in the best talent possible to give them a chance.

    But I have a couple other thoughts on this year's draft. First, even though we have a need in the backcourt, I think drafting yet another PG would be the dumbest waste of a pick possible. We'll see how Nolan does with a bigger role at the end of this season, but you are NOT going to get your answer to your PG problems through the draft (just ask Charlotte and Cleveland how that goes). The second thought I have is NOT to draft ANYONE with ANY history of injury! I swear, whoever our 2 first round picks end up being, the most extensive basketball injury EITHER of them should have sustained is a stubbed toe. Anything worse, and it's on to the next player on the list.
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  1. DHawes22
    DHawes22
    Posts: 6488

    Posted 04/19/2012 2:40 PM

    Posted By D_pickett on 04/16/2012 6:50 PM
    But I have a couple other thoughts on this year's draft. First, even though we have a need in the backcourt, I think drafting yet another PG would be the dumbest waste of a pick possible. We'll see how Nolan does with a bigger role at the end of this season, but you are NOT going to get your answer to your PG problems through the draft (just ask Charlotte and Cleveland how that goes).
    We can't pass on Marhsall or Lillard because we have Nolan Smith. If we think any collegiate point guard in this year's draft can be the guy at point, long-term, you pick him. Nolan hasn't proven enough to warrant not picking a player at his position. And I'm pretty sure Cleveland is thrilled with Kyrie Irving. Before he got dinged up and had to miss some time, they were hovering around 9-11 out East and for that team, that is a miracle. Every player comes through the draft, so you can't say you won't find a point guard answer via the draft. Is the answer Lillard or Marshall? That's the better question.
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  1. jamsmashers
    jamsmashers
    Posts: 297

    Posted 04/23/2012 1:11 PM

    out of this draft, i think we pick ok for our needs, if we draft barnes (backup sf) and marshell llard, any pg with the second pick,  we are standing decent, trad mathews for a starting sf, start batum sg and focus on a center and pg offseason (even dragic an hibert) - dragic batum lets say  cj miles for sake of arguement LA ribbert with llard/marshall, elliot, barnes-batum, hickson, priz? def still question but it establishes a direction and will put us second rnd in playoffs- we also must not forget the ideo of trading both picks for a veterain player, that would still be my way to go about this (mathews and picks for and iguadala type player)
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  1. DHawes22
    DHawes22
    Posts: 6488

    Posted 04/25/2012 2:32 PM

    With the way our picks are setting up (6 &11), I don't think we'll be bale to pick for need. Drummond (C) and Marshall (PG) could be gone before we pick, forcing us to take the best player available. And, I just don't see us taking a point guard in the draft with all of the free agent point guards soon to be on the market.
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  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 05/02/2012 11:09 AM

    Always go best player available
    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. Tobyus Sanchezo
    Tobyus Sanchezo
    Posts: 1669

    Posted 05/06/2012 5:46 AM

    We need buckets, go with the best offensive player. Instant points off the bench.
    I am a fan of multiple All-Stars on the Blazers roster this season!
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