Posted 01/30/2010 1:42 PM

Portland (27-21) heads to Dallas (30-16) to finish their quick two-game road trip before heading back home to the Rose City. The Trail Blazers have spoiled us fans recently and this three-game losing streak is uncharted territory for both us and the players. Portland is in danger of losing their 4th in a row for the first time since April 2008. Even without Batum, Outlaw, Przybilla, and Oden, Portland bucked the recent trend by winning in Big D, 85-81, back on December 22nd. The Blazers do have Batum this time around, but one major piece of the puzzle is absent tonight, Brandon Roy. For Portland to have a shot at another win over Dallas, they must ugly the game up, just as they did prior and not allow Dallas to score over 100 points.

Porland's .133 winning percentage when the opponent score over 100 points is 4th worst in the NBA, and without Brandon Roy's offensive firepower, if Dallas his 100, its over. A major key to the December win in Dallas was holding Terry, Kid, Gooden, and Marion to 5-33 shooting from the field. Now, I doubt we hold them to that poor of a shooting night again, but with Batum back in the mix and Martell playing the best defense of his life, it's not out of the realm to quiet them again. Outside of Dirk, who you will not stop, Portland needs to stick to JJ Barea like glue. He had 22 points (9-16) and 5 assists last meeting and like Brooks, he is a little waterbug out there on the floor, changing directions every which way, which causes our defenses fits. I hope we decide to put Bayless on him as he is too quick for our other guards to stay with.

Portland could luck out tonight and have Erik Dampier miss the game. He is listed as day-to-day with a sore knee after injuring it in Thursday's loss in Phoenix. For whatever reason, Dampier always plays like its his last game against the Blazers and the last matchup was no different as he scored 8 and gobbled up 15 rebounds without Joel in the middle to disturb him. If Dampier can't go or isn't 100%, the Trail Blazers must take initiative and attack the hoop. Do not settle for jump shots. Be the aggressors and get to the foul line. Portland is 3rd in the NBA in free throw shooting at 78.8%, so there is an easy way to get points and get players into their rhythms. The team must be careful to not be overly aggressive on the defensive end, because if you get into the penalty on Dallas early, they will make you pay as they are #1 in the league at over 80% from the charity stripe.

The X-Factor tonight for Portland will be LaMarcus Aldridge as well as the player movement surrounding him. In Houston last night, he had it going early and often in the 1st half. Immediately after halftime, Rick Adleman made adjustments to double LaMarcus and Portland failed to re-adjust after that. There were multiple lanes down the middle of the hoop where Blazer players could have cut down the middle for two, such as the Hornets and Jazz did to us the prior two games. But the team decided to stand and watch LMA get double teamed. Coach Nate needs to draw up some back cuts or send players down the middle to attack the rim. If Aldridge can get it going and force a double, Portland must take advantage and move without the ball. Do not be content with simply shooting jump shots.

With the recent play of the Trail Blazers without Brandon Roy, they haven't gave me any reason to believe they can beat a plus .500 basketball team. There has been no 4th quarter offense and it seems like the guys get somewhat flustered out there at times without Roy's leadership. Again, this is not a knock on the current squad, more of a representation of just how important Roy is to this team. Along with Barea and Dirk, Jason Terry will rebound from a poor shooting game last time to lead Dallas to a double digit victory. Portland will keep it within 7-8 points throughout the game, but never able to break through to get the score any closer.
Game 49 Prediction: Trail Blazers 89 Mavericks 102