Questions of consistancy and contract: Batum
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  1. Blazer Fanatic
    Blazer Fanatic
    Posts: 758

    Posted 09/22/2013 9:54 PM

    Rather than debate perception, acranes on Blazer's Edge took the time to actualy analyze the question of Batum's contract (whether he's worth it), his performance, and tries to address the claim that Batum is "inconsistant."

     

    http://www.blazersedge.com/2013/7/30/4570500/an-empirical-comparison-of-nicolas-batum-to-other-starting-small

     

    He concludes:

     

    If we use standard deviation as an analog for consistency, Batum was about 7% less consistent than the average of his peers. Is 7% significant? This is where subjectivity comes in. Taking everything from this entire post together, I would say that 7% is not significant. Batum has the highest mean game score, the second highest performance score from the contract analysis, and the second smallest contract among comparable veterans. If he was Rudy Gay, one of the highest paid while also being one of the lowest performing, then maybe 7% consistency would be something to talk about.

     

    So while I agree that Batum can be inconsistant, and it can be frustrating as a Blazer fan, I don't think it's significant, especially when taken in context of his performance and his contract.  The take away here is that Batum is not over paid, and an agrument to trade him based on a lack of consistancy has little, if any, merit.

  1. RipCity 14
    RipCity 14
    Posts: 941

    Posted 09/23/2013 2:55 AM

    I love Batum, and I am one his few avid supporters on this forum, but his inconsistency has been disturbing me while watching the Eurobasket tournament. I'm reeeeaaaaallly hoping he picks it up like we know he's CAPABLE of in time for the NBA season.

    I am a fan of Raymond Felton. Haha, seriously though I'm a fan of Batum's Lobs and JJ's Slams.
  1. Blazer Fanatic
    Blazer Fanatic
    Posts: 758

    Posted 09/23/2013 9:31 AM

    Read the study. It won't kill you, I promise. ; )

     

     

    Batum is not significanly more inconsistant than his peers (Gay, Deng, Gallinari, Iguodala). And, if his peers are as inconsistant, then it makes no difference if Batum is inconsistant, because to replace him would not increase consistancy at his position. You'd have more success making an arguement that ALL NBA SFs (not named Carmelo, LeBron, Durant) are inconsistant, and even weak as a group. However, that is certainly not the angle Batum "traders" take. And to them I say, because Batum is, statistically speaking, insignificantly inconsistant.  Or in other words, Batum is NOT inconsistant.

     

    Wanting him to play amazing all the time is one thing.  Saying he is inconsistant, as though his peers are not, is a gross misperception.

  1. Blazer Fanatic
    Blazer Fanatic
    Posts: 758

    Posted 09/23/2013 9:33 AM

    no edit!!!!

     

    And to them I say, because Batum is, statistically speaking, insignificantly inconsistant, Batum is NOT inconsistant.

     

  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 09/23/2013 10:51 AM

    Here is the problem with your argument Batum gets a significant bonus from his blocks, steals, offensive rebound rate and assists in the metric used by the author. While I certainly appreciate Batum doing more on nights he is not scoring, such as rebounding and passing, those metrics over inflate his consistency. 


    For me, the issue is more about the 18 games he had last season in which he scored less than 10 points and played more than 30 minutes. Those numbers are significantly higher than his peer group and when you consider how much Portland needed scoring from their starters last year with that bench it is even more frustrating. 



    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. Blazer Fanatic
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    Posts: 758

    Posted 09/23/2013 12:22 PM

    Nothing personal, but the problem would be on your end. You either didn't read it, or don't comprehend what it says.

     

    This study would suggest your concerns are over-blown, if not completely unfounded.

     

    Do you look for information counter to your point ever?

    Number of games under 10 pts:

    Batum - 19 games (4th most FGA for POR)

    Iguodola - 20 games (3rd most FGA for DEN)

    Deng - 9 games (Deng averaged more FGA than any CHI player)

    George - 9 games (George averaged more FGA than any IND player)

    K.Leonard - 21 games (DNP 24 games/3rd most FGA for SA)

    Gallinari - 14 games (DNP 14 games/2nd most FGA DEN)

    Gay - 7 games (nearly 6 more FGA than Batum and most on his teams... half the assists)

    Parsons 16 games - (2nd most FGA for HOU)

     

     

    Find something else to complain about. This issue is settled.

  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 09/23/2013 4:58 PM


    Batum 18

    Iggy 13

    Deng 6

    George 6

    Leonard 9

    Galinari 4

    Gay 2

    Parsons 11

    James 0

    Durant 0

    Anthony 1

    Pierce 2


    Adding in the other top tier SF's really shows where Batum ranks:

    Clearly his consistency pales in comparison to James, Durant, Anthony and Pierce. 

    He was twice as inconsistent as Gay, Deng and George by your numbers and 3 times worse by mine (more for Gay.)

    At best Batum is now the 8th best SF in the league, if you look at the stats in the article he also got crushed by Parson and Leonard in the advanced metrics. 


    I also distinctly remember seeing most people argue that Iguodala, Gay, and Deng are over paid and in Gay's case significantly overpaid. Iguodala and Deng tend to get a little more of a free pass because they play All NBA level defense.


    So if you want to consider Batum an above average SF who ranks between 8-12 go ahead and he compares pretty decently, but if you want him to challenge for a spot in the top 5 like I do then there is no comparison Batum must become more consistent to be considered one of the best at his position otherwise what we have is a good player and sometimes even a borderline all star candidate.

    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 09/23/2013 5:05 PM

    Those numbers are the number of games with 30 minutes or more and less than 10 points. 


    Had to add it here since the site refuses to add an edit button. 


    I guess all that extra money the team got from naming rights is not going to be spent on the fans. As this year we have higher ticket prices, no edit buttons on the teams official message board, and no free chalupas.

    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. riverman
    riverman
    Posts: 1431

    Posted 09/23/2013 5:10 PM

    Again, check out Nico's exit interview and he'll tell you the same, he knows where he needs to improve. Several of those players make a lot more money than Nic as well. I think Nico's skillset is really unique in the league. We're really lucky to have him. I never put some guys like LeBron in the same catagory because he plays any position he wants and isn't really a system-type player. Nic is coachable. He may very well become an allstar this season. Hard to judge the present from the past. JJ Hickson is a perfect example of someone who improved tremendously after a terrible season in Sac. Nic has improved every year.
    I am a fan of A team that plays like Tower of Power on a big stage on a good night
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 09/23/2013 7:12 PM

    I do not disagree with you River Batum has lots of skills which make him very valuable, he just simply needs to put it all together. Be more consistent, shoot a little better, cut down his turnovers and several other small things and he can be in the conversation with the Paul Georges and Paul Pierces for the top 5. 

    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 09/23/2013 9:26 PM

    He did not compare him to Lebron, Durant, Pierce or Anthony nor was he compared to George, Parsons or Leonard for consistency. 

    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. Blazer Fanatic
    Blazer Fanatic
    Posts: 758

    Posted 09/23/2013 9:43 PM

    Batum is not Carmelo, LeBron, or Durant, nor does he get paid like them.  We covered this in another thread.  You want LeBron.  We get it.  This is the iamablazerfan forum.




  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 09/23/2013 10:27 PM

    Only an idiot would not want the best player in the league. Since I am no idiot yes I would like Lebron on the team. 


    The point was Batum's comparison was very limited and while it is great he is a better value than other over paid SF'S except Galinari according to the article that still does not make him over paid. 


    Nor does it prevent him from being inconsistent, or does it mean he is not a good asset.

    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. Blazer Fanatic
    Blazer Fanatic
    Posts: 758

    Posted 09/23/2013 11:01 PM

    Complaining almost daily that Batum isn't LeBron would suggest otherwise. 


    The analysis was limited, but conclusive.  And as you stated, it doesn't not make Batum over-paid. Market value is market value.


    I don't understand your last point at all.  Sounds like you are confused.


    If there is a take away for you cmeese, it would be that your criticism of Batum over the past year was way off-base.

  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 09/24/2013 8:08 AM

    My take away on Batum has always been he is good not great, he has lots of potential but not sure he will ever reach it, and based on his perceived value Portland would be better off trading him than paying him 11 million a season. 


    Furthermore, my takeaway has been that if Batum is going to stay I want to see him more aggressive, especially on defense, and more consistent specifically shooting the ball and scoring wise. 



    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. Blazer Fanatic
    Blazer Fanatic
    Posts: 758

    Posted 09/24/2013 11:09 AM

    Clearly this thread is not for you then cmeese.  All the data says the Blazers would not be better off trading Batum.  I'm sorry you don't understand it.
  1. Blazer Fanatic
    Blazer Fanatic
    Posts: 758

    Posted 09/24/2013 12:51 PM

    Paul George: 5 years 90 mil  (18 mil per year)  being reported.

     

    No more crocodile tears about Batum being over-paid. 

  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 09/24/2013 5:16 PM

    Paul George is the 4th best SF in the game I would probably take him over Melo if given the choice. Personally I think 18 per is probably too much for anyone sans Lebron and Durant however, he is probably the best defensive SF in the game next to Lebron and Lebron only gets the nod because he can guard multiple positions. 


    Bleacher Report had George number 1 for SF

    Batum was 19


    Whether those are accurate is highly debatable. 


    Point is he is physical, aggressive and will be even better next season. The next time the Blazers fall just short of making the NBA finals is the day I say Batum is underpaid or if he makes an all star game considering playoff success is a team achievement.  

    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. Blazer Fanatic
    Blazer Fanatic
    Posts: 758

    Posted 09/24/2013 6:51 PM

    Try again cmeese.  George was included in the performance analysis in the first graph.  Just click on it.  He excells over Batum is rebounding, 0.5 more steals, 0.5 fewer blocks, and at 4 more FGA per game, I should hope he could sqeeze 3 more points than Batum.  Although Batum shoots better from 2pt, 3pt, and from the charity stripe. 

    $7 million difference?  Funny stuff.

     

    LOL @ Bleacher Report.  Classic.  Batum at 19 Gerorge at 1.  Hilarious.

     

    I guess it's too bad Roy Hibbert didn't sign with Portland.  We wouldn't have to listen to this incesant speculating.

  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 09/24/2013 7:38 PM

    BTW George will make 16 million per unless he makes an All NBA team then he could make up to 18 per. 


    If he makes an All NBA team then it would be difficult to argue that as one of the 15 best players in the league is over paid. 


    All Star game or near trip to NBA finals and we will talk til then Batum is slightly overpaid in my opinion

    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. Blazer Fanatic
    Blazer Fanatic
    Posts: 758

    Posted 09/24/2013 8:33 PM

    Not hard to make an eastern All-Star team when you are the team's leading scorer.
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 09/25/2013 11:43 AM

    Really I think A. Affalo, K. Walker, J. Wall, G. Monroe, D. Derozan, M. Ellis, P. Pierce,  and J. Smith would all disagree funny that is over half the teams in the East. 

    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 09/25/2013 11:51 AM

    BTW 9 players in the western conference missed the all star game and led their team in scoring. Just FYI.

    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 09/25/2013 8:51 PM

    Nope that was just basic math. I am surprised that you overlooked it considering you seem to know everything else.

    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. Blazer Fanatic
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    Posts: 758

    Posted 09/25/2013 9:41 PM

    We need an edit button as well as an ignore button.
  1. Siccolo
    Siccolo
    Posts: 1250

    Posted 09/26/2013 12:19 AM

    !?!? Where/when did Cmeese troll?? That was pretty rude imo LOL.... Having a regular discussions, then a random Troll comment. lolololol Cmon yo


    Paul George put up 19pts 7rb 5ast in his 19 playoff games at 23 years old. He didn't shoot too well but I think he earned his contract. 


    So since Iggy, Gay, Deng, Gallo are inconsistent scorers, that means Batum isn't?? 


    There arent many SF that will consistently give you 20 points. Batum doesn't have to score a lot every game if he helps out in other places. 


    But when we lose a game and we see our 2nd highest paid player has below 10 points, people are going to criticize Batum. These people aren't trolls btw.


    All that matters is that Batum does what he is asked to do. I'm sure if we are in need of scoring we will go to Damian, LA, or even Mo Williams before Nic. 


    If you score 20 or higher at least 15 times in a season but also score less that 10 points 15 times in the same season, then you are a inconsistent scorer. Which isn't a terrible thing


    All I ask of Nic is to Hit open 3s, Make smart choices, Play aggressive D, and Rebound.

    I am a fan of This Quote "One Love. One Heart. One Human race."
  1. Blazer Fanatic
    Blazer Fanatic
    Posts: 758

    Posted 09/26/2013 6:42 AM

    Paul George put up 19pts 7rb 5ast in his 19 playoff games at 23 years old. He didn't shoot too well but I think he earned his contract.

    The argument here is not whether or not he is worth a max deal, it's the compaired to Batum, it's a poor argument to say that Batum is over-paid, when George will be making a very substantial amount more than Batum.  For comparison, check out arcanes analysis.

    So since Iggy, Gay, Deng, Gallo are inconsistent scorers, that means Batum isn't??

    It means that there is no statistical difference, so whether one feels Batum is consistant or not, replacing him would not increase consistancy at the SF position.  IF the argument were, we want Batum to be most consistant, then ok... every fan of every team wants that from their small forwards too.  The problem with the incesant Batum flaming is they crys for a trade because of "inconsistancy."  Which, as I've just explained, is a poor argument to make, and more so in the face of the analysis I posted from arcane on BE.

     

    There arent many SF that will consistently give you 20 points. Batum doesn't have to score a lot every game if he helps out in other places.

    True, but they also take a great deal more FGA per game, and are not on a team with ROY Lillard and LA and Wes who all took more FGAs than Batum.

     

    But when we lose a game and we see our 2nd highest paid player has below 10 points, people are going to criticize Batum. These people aren't trolls btw.

    Aslo true on both accounts.  It's one thing to expect more, and entirely another to make a new thread about trading him, and questioning his effort and heart on a weekly basis.  Repeating the same tired take ad nausium is what makes it trolling.  As is making personal attack to people stating an opinion, then crying wolf when someone gives them a taste of their own trolling.

     

    All that matters is that Batum does what he is asked to do.

    Tony Parker asked Batum to step up because he said he was spent.  And Batum did and won was the MVP for France in the Gold Medal game.  I believe Batum does what he is ask.  That it is not a question of effort.  That he is a team player, and extremely unselfish.  And, that he is missunderstood by most Blazer fans.  Someone on BE said it best:

     

     

    When Tony Parker wasn’t “too tired” to be the isolation king, Batum was asked to stand in the corner and watch him play. Batum is quite literally too unselfish – too willing to defer shots – too willing to give up the basketball. But his intentions are pure – and I think this is what is missed in the great Batum debate. Too many question his heart – question his effort. Too many miss the point that Batum is a consummate team player that hasn’t realized the value of shouldering the burden vs. sharing the glory. Batum thrives when all 5 players are involved in defeating the opposition – but is incorrectly and unjustly accused of “disappearing” just as often or more often than he shows up.

    The truth lies in Batum’s very solid, very unusual production for his position – 14.3/5.6/4.9. That is what Batum brings on a nightly basis. But I take exception to the notion that Batum’s production on a nightly basis is merely a reflection of his “effort” that night. Batum produces what he produces – totally compatible with the notion that what we see is what we get.

    Batum’s production is just as consistent as his peers. Batum’s production is better than most of his peers.

    The issue isn’t that Batum is less consistent, or deficient in his production. The polarity comes from those that want more on a nightly basis. More production – as if more production was simply a function of more effort. What that group wants is Batum to be more selfish. To not defer to teammates. To not pass when he can shoot. The “anti” Batum crowd wants more scoring. The anti-Batum crowd wants a star but doesn’t believe he will ever achieve those levels.

    However, the pro-Batum crowd doesn’t necessarily believe or need Batum to be a star to appreciate his game – to appreciate the value he brings. The real question is whether what we see night in and night out is good enough – and it is possible to have consensus on that question without the conversation devolving into the equal fallacies of “consistency” or “potential”.

    He’s just Nicolas Batum. You have to take the bad with the good and understand that the latter will outweigh the former on most nights. Sure it could be better but honestly it could be worse too. [a quote from Dave's blog, that blacknoiseNW stiked out]

    This lesson applies to every player in the NBA – not just Batum. Evaluate him based on what he does – not on how he does it. “How” he does it is too misunderstood – too unappreciated – and has nothing to do at all with effort.

    To which I added:

     

    I could not have said it better myself, so I will give blacknoise a huge REC, and say it again : “This lesson applies to every player in the NBA – not just Batum. Evaluate him based on what he does – not on how he does it. “How” he does it is too misunderstood – too unappreciated – and has nothing to do at all with effort.”

    I understand Batum’s game, I appreciate Batum’s game, and I am pro-Batum because he is a Blazer – and I am a Blazer fan-atic.

    I would add to that:

    “Part of the tendency towards extremism comes in our need for resolution.” – Dave

    I would argue that the emotional/polar reactions are more a symptom of an age of instant pleasure, impatience, and wanting what the winning team has now! People need simple solutions to complex problems, and must group things in giant boxes for easy digestion. Oden, Roy, Nate, LA, Mr. Allen, Olshey, Batum… we need someone to blame, someone to be responsible for failing year after year to make a deep play-off push and to lead die hard Blazer fans to the promise land where Blazer jerseys and logos represent a status symbol of “I am a winner and this is MY team.” Therein lies the drama. Not with the players or coaches or owners, but with the fans. I think if we could peel that away to some degree, we could appreciate Batum, or any Blazer player for that matter, to a greater degree and be glad that he’s on our team.

    It’s really unfortunate the first thought by some Blazer fans was not one of excitement and happiness for Batum and France in winning gold, but rather to complain and disparage his tournament play. I think it would do everyone some good to take a step back, enjoy his success, and look forward to a great season with a better Blazer team. Perhaps that is asking too much.

    If you kill all the wolves, you're gonna end up with a crap load of bunnies. And by bunnies, I mean stupid people.

     

    Whether Batum scores 2 or 20 is far less important than what he does from night to night to help the team win basketball games. What you are asking from Batum Siccolo is not unresonable by any stretch, and in no way reflects any measure of trolling.  I would expect you, and any Blazer fan, to feel that way. 

  1. Simpson
    Simpson
    Posts: 303

    Posted 09/26/2013 8:10 AM

    What Blazer Fanatic just said ^ is the only way things can b seen & to argue w/ her here is flat out foolish IMO.
    I am a fan of OUR Blazers!
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 09/26/2013 11:08 AM

    I do not think Batum is lazy or lacks effort. I find his game to be very passive, which I believe is holding him back from meeting his full potential. 


    It would be amazing to see him put out the same effort as Matthews each night but that is not going to happen although for several million a year everyone should put out max effort every second they are on the court.

    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. Blazer Fanatic
    Blazer Fanatic
    Posts: 758

    Posted 09/26/2013 1:29 PM

    You say passive, I say finesse.  There is no limit to what a team can accomplish when the individuals don't care who gets the credit.  I'm glad Batum is a Blazer.
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 09/26/2013 1:35 PM

    Except at one point one of those 5 need to step up and demand the ball. Thanks to Lillard and Mo Williams Batum has less reasons than ever to be that guy and maybe it is a blessing and maybe it will hold him back but barring an injury we should know for certain after this year.

    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
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