Let's Talk Stats
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  1. knorton181
    knorton181
    Posts: 264

    Posted 02/26/2013 11:27 PM

    Well, I'll get right to it. I'm starting to look around at various articles, web pages, columns, etc. and I am seeing many say something about an aspect of Lillard that isn't phenomenal, it's just good. Specifically the one article/blog republished by Cory Mandina via CBS Sports' Matt Moore:

     

     • As mentioned above, Moore thinks Lillard is good, just not "phenomenal." Moore does say, however, that he is without question the Rookie of the Year:
    Lillard has been great for expectations. He's led the Blazers to a stunningly good start and provided big moment after big moment for them late in games.

     

    But it should be noted that Lillard's numbers (17 points on 14.6 shots per 36 minutes, 6 assists and 2.8 turnovers per 36) suggest "great" not "All-Star." ... His 41.6 percent shooting from the floor and good-not-great 34 percent from the arc isn't much to write home about, either.

    Lillard's going to win the award, going away, because he's impressed scouts and writers, because he's established himself as the 1A to LaMarcus Aldridge, and because of the problems with the other candidates. But there are very specific limitations to his game at this level, and whether he's able to sustain this production and effectiveness over time is more of a question than it is with most runaway rookie of the year winners.

    Okay, let me just say, I read the actual article on CBS Sports, and just to inform you, that this was the only other thing he mentioned about Lillard in the article:

     It can be both a phenomenal year for Lillard, especially vs. expectations, and still not rattle our cages based on historical precedent. I can think Lillard is an incredible talent without considering him a robot ninja, so to speak.

    (To save you from wasting your time reading the article yourself, the rest goes on to talk about the other ROY candidates and his thoughts on them, as well as his top 5's for MVP, 6th man, ROY, etc.)

     

    Okay, well I don't know where to begin. I'll start by saying to you Mr. Moore, in the beginning of the article when you wrote: "There's no way to take what I said above and not feel slighted if you're a Blazers fan. I basically said he's one of the few rookies to not set the bed on fire." Well, that's such a cop-out to me. Okay, so basically it's your way of covering your ass because the ONLY people who have watched Lillard play this year other than in 3 (or 4?) ESPN/NBA TV games this year, (or possibly 7 or 8 games depending on if someone watched us play there team), are Blazer fans. So basically he is stating that the only people who COULD actually disagree with him, can't because basically 'it's obvious that we would disagree with him'.

     

    Well, now on to the actual disagreement. In all honesty, Matt Moore isn't the only one to talk about Lillard statisticaly not being all that impressive. Okay well... heeere we go (in the Slick Rick voice).

     

    1) Okay, so Lillard has a 41.6 FG% and a 34.4% 3P%, agreed that these aren't spectacular necessarily. But at the same time, by no means is it a mark of mediocrity as a rookie. In comparison for other Rookie-Yr-FG%'s first, Kevin Durant- 43%  , CP3- 43% , Melo- 42.6% , Lebron- 41.7% , Tony Parker- 41.9% , Kobe Bryant- 41.7% . Those are the 6 candidates for MVP this year... Dang, looks like they turned out "not-so-spectacular." 2 other players I recently heard in comparison to Lillard: Damon Stoudamire- 42.7% , Isiah Thomas- 42.4% .

    Rookie-Yr-3P%'s for the same top 6 MVP candidates: (The Biggest shock right here) Kevin Durant- 28.8% , CP3- 28.2% , Melo- 32.2% , Tony Parker- 32.3% , Kobe Bryant- 37.5% . Ohhhhhh okay Matt Moore as well as many others, sooo when you make statistical arguments you actually don't bother setting a level of comparison. Yikes, what has writing come to now-a-days.

     

    2) On to PER, again, agreed it's not great. Much of the other's had decent PER, but for variables that I'm not going to get into.. I will say though, PER can definitely be misleading. But anyways, Rookie Yr PER for Kevin Durant- 15.6

    3) Lastly... If you're gonna talk stats, HOW can you ignore possibly the single most sustainable and rare stat among all mentioned: Damian Lillard is the FIRST ROOKIE IN NBA HISTORY to have 900 points and 100 3PM in his first 50 games. I know you all know this. Man, you wanna talk stats yet you seemingly forget to mention this.

     

    So aside from statistics, Matt Moore makes this comment: "there are very specific limitations to his game at this level, and whether he's able to sustain this production and effectiveness over time is more of a question than it is with most runaway rookie of the year winners."

    Wow, so for such "specific limitations", you do a really great job of NOT MENTIONING THEM anywhere in your article. To be completely honest, I'm all ears to hear what he or anyone would like to point to a legitimate limitation to Damian's game. And to be even more honest, I truly can't think of any limitation.

     

    An idea in this article, as with many I have seen, is that there is something you can actually tell me this kid CAN'T DO in his future. "Limitations" is the idea that something is set in stone that can't be undone, which I haven't even seen a peek of from Damian in any way. Not to mention, just ask Wesley Matthews, someone's thought on an athlete's "limitations" means... well, it means nothing.

     

    I understand statistically it isn't a crazy statistical year. But not every ROY - turn All-Star is a stat stuffer. It just goes to show how little the world gets to see this kid actually play. It truly has been unfortunate he isn't getting the recognition he deserves. But at the same time.. I love that he doesn't care.

    I am a fan of
  1. knorton181
    knorton181
    Posts: 264

    Posted 02/26/2013 11:54 PM

    I love feeling a part of the Portland bubble, but man when you step out over here on the east coast and such. It's a different viewpoint all-together. Tough to watch people harp on this kid when he is, truly, the real deal.
    I am a fan of
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 02/26/2013 11:55 PM

    Well he is correct Lillard's numbers are good not all-star worthy. The good thing though is he is a rookie and he can improve. I think specifically he needs to improve his shot choices, I have seen a few too many off balance and rushed three point attempts out of him. He also needs a mid range shot. He has flaws but what rookie doesn't.

    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. knorton181
    knorton181
    Posts: 264

    Posted 02/27/2013 12:11 AM

    Recently, I would agree. IMO it's because he is geting a bit tired, and I don't blame him
    I am a fan of
  1. Blazer Fanatic
    Blazer Fanatic
    Posts: 758

    Posted 02/27/2013 12:57 AM

    Seems rather pointless to drone on about Lillard if he's going to skirt around saying "Lillard is average."  Slighted isn't really the word I was thinking.  I was thinking more so that I can't take him seriously, and I feel sorry for him that he is forced to write about things he knows very little about.  It's just too bad it wasn't printed on a piece of newspaper, because it would have made for much better toilet paper than reading material. ; )  He says Lillard has impressed NBA writers and scouts, and this guy is saying basically that he's not impressed. Did he really need to write an artical to tell us that?

     

    Teams are trapping Lillard like crazy, and it's a process with a new team and his first year in the League to learn what he needs to do playing the most difficult possition in the NBA.  When Lillard is on the floor with bench guys, he doesn't get the veteran help he needs to relieve that presure.  He's is noticably getting better at recognizing the trap, and reading defenses that teams throw at him.  He's learning where and when to get his shots.  If westbrick (aka chucker-sui) is an all-star, and has a nearly identical shooting percentage from the field and from behind the arc...  what is this guy talking about?  He litterally looked at a stats sheet and was asked to write an artical about it.  Great work. #sarcasm

     

    Who was the last rookie All-star guard? Only the greatest player to ever play the game - MJ. What is the point of even talking about Lillard as an All-Star if only to say he's no All-Star. Even bias Blazer fan can admit that Lillard has a lot to learn to achieve the kind of success that other All-Star PGs have achieved. But so did all the All-Star PGs when they were rookies and 2nd year players.

     

    It's laughable that he is basically calling Lillard a default rookie of the year because of injuries. Sounds like a sour puss who didn't pick Lillard to win RoY before the season started.  If this writer was worth his salt, he would have taken the time to compair Lillard to other rookies as well, instead of dismissing the comparison entirely because of injury, and ignoring rookies of the past.  Historical precident?  What the heck is he talking about?  He's just saying stuff with no evidence to support his claim.  A textbook hater.  Just really sad this guy could even get around to watching Lillard in Miami.

     

    I keep getting a critial error and can't post any blogs or comments on my trail blazer blog or I'd post a really nice chart from nba.com that shows Lillard right in there with all the All-Stars. 

     

     

     

  1. riverman
    riverman
    Posts: 1431

    Posted 02/27/2013 11:16 AM

    One of the great things about Lillard is his ow humble assesment of his game and areas that need improvement. Something they don't really mention much is how he's stayed healthy given the minutes he's played. Then again, when have any Blazer players not gone under the radar in the blog or podcast world? I hope scouts and teams underestimate him
    I am a fan of A team that plays like Tower of Power on a big stage on a good night
  1. BLASER
    BLASER
    Posts: 757

    Posted 02/27/2013 7:38 PM

    ^ idk roy was pretty big and really wasn't all that under the radar 

    I am a fan of defensive man beasts
  1. knorton181
    knorton181
    Posts: 264

    Posted 02/28/2013 11:32 AM

    To be honest, if Brandon Roy was on the Celtics, Clippers, Bulls, Knicks, Mavs, or Lakers. You would probably have heard something like "the next coming!" or at least would have heard/seen him non-stop in the media. Even if he was on the Nuggets or  he would have gotten much more attention. We defenitely do not get coverage the way that many NBA teams do. For such a loyal and supportive fan base. It is a jip.

    River, I was gonna look up statistics to see how many rookie's have averaged high minutes and NOT gotten injured during the year (although didn't he tweak his ankle during week 2 or something? maybe I'm just thinking of Price). But I figured if I went on any longer people definitely wouldn't read everything I wrote above haha.

    BF, you should see Russell Westbrook's rookie year stats, my god...Actually to be honest, average up his career stats and Lillard takes the cake by a long shot still lol. But yeah, overall, the intangibles as a rookie that Lillard has are up on the level of Brandon Roy's. I swear those two have such a high IQ and so similar in their poise and mindset. But yeah, as far as I'm concerned, that article makes me less angry (especially now that I wrote it off, basically), I just feel bad for the guy.
    I am a fan of
  1. BLASER
    BLASER
    Posts: 757

    Posted 02/28/2013 1:23 PM

    idk he probably won't be an all star anytime soon unless he balls out of his mind theres too many great gaurds in the west right now 

    I am a fan of defensive man beasts
  1. sug81
    sug81
    Posts: 254

    Posted 02/28/2013 1:46 PM

    See even though living in L.A. being swarmed by laker fans, thunder fans, heat fans, bulls fans, and clipper fans, all of them say Damian is amazing, it's weird how back east he doesn't get credit but out west at least where I live people give credit where it's due. But I have to agree with BLASER, it might have to be until players start retiring for him to get a spot, but I hope not and you never know.

    I am a fan of that GRIT & GRIND
  1. sug81
    sug81
    Posts: 254

    Posted 02/28/2013 1:48 PM

    And imma bout to get $5 betting on Damian getting ROY, friend thought Davis had it in the bag haha

    I am a fan of that GRIT & GRIND
  1. knorton181
    knorton181
    Posts: 264

    Posted 02/28/2013 2:36 PM

    Same here sug81 lol no joke. My friend's a huge Hornets fan. Called Lillard during Summer League being ROY and he thought it was comical..  
    I am a fan of
  1. BLASER
    BLASER
    Posts: 757

    Posted 02/28/2013 6:58 PM

    yea every other nba anylysts back in the summer would of rolled with laughter if you said lillard was gonna be the rookie of the year 

    I am a fan of defensive man beasts
  1. uprised
    uprised
    Posts: 136

    Posted 03/01/2013 9:02 AM

    Matt Moore, Senior NBA Blogger at CBS....I'm impressed.  Dude probably hasn't watched a Blazer game all season.

    I am a fan of winning
  1. vegasscouting
    vegasscouting
    Posts: 2

    Posted 03/01/2013 10:46 AM

    Lillard is a great player. I think what Matt Moore was saying by mentioning him not being "phenomenal", is just that he is not the NEXT LEVEL player yet, and there are quite a few of those, at point guard, in the league. So it would be hard to call a guy phenomenal when he's a top 10 or top 15 player in the league. But he is good, and young, and will get better.


    Boomer,

    Vegas Scouting

    I am a fan of Sports, sports handicapping, and statistical analysis.
  1. BLASER
    BLASER
    Posts: 757

    Posted 03/01/2013 3:02 PM

    true and most 4 year college players get knocked for not being able to improve much these days 

    I am a fan of defensive man beasts
  1. Curvychloe
    Curvychloe
    Posts: 610

    Posted 03/02/2013 10:31 AM

    Lillard is a Phenominal Player with a maturity that alot of rookies lack. Just look how he carries himself in crunch time and you can see that he's got that "IT" factor. Theres alot to be said for statistics and skillz. But the most important skill you can have is whats in your head, that killer instinct. Some players have it,some players dont,and lillard definatley does.
    I am a fan of Sexy Blondes at courtside
  1. commontongue
    commontongue
    Posts: 1864

    Posted 03/02/2013 4:36 PM

    Haters are going to hate. Its their job. Lillard is a baller. 4 months worth of Rookie of the month, and still, they do not believe.
    I am a fan of our new roster playing with and for eachother.
  1. Siccolo
    Siccolo
    Posts: 1250

    Posted 03/03/2013 1:52 AM

    If you look at Damian Lillards game log compared to Derrick Rose's rookie season its very similar

    Lillard is having a better season too...many analysts think LIllard will grow even better! Not saying he will be an MVP but he will be a 20+ scorer I guarantee 

    I am a fan of This Quote "One Love. One Heart. One Human race."
  1. BDawg
    BDawg
    Posts: 1593

    Posted 03/03/2013 3:29 AM

    The physical with Dame is obvious, and doesn't need any more play.  For me at least, from pre draft day, what has mattered MOST with the Weber St grad has been what the man has between his ears and what he possesses in his chest.  Those two variables when put with the obvious physical, equal greatness...greatness on a very special and select level.  That is the reason for the optimism.  Pray for health Rose City, as that has been a consistent nemisis as of late.

    I am a fan of players that play with PASSION and PRIDE
  1. knorton181
    knorton181
    Posts: 264

    Posted 03/03/2013 11:27 AM

    Great post BDawg^

    @Siccolo plus Lillard shoots MUCH better than Rose did at first.

    I am a fan of
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