Posted 12/31/2012 4:20 PM

Posted By Blazer Fanatic on 12/31/2012 4:12 PM

Posted By sedare on 12/31/2012 4:02 PM

So... Ok scenario to help me grasp this. (Something that might actually work after I found a trade machine lol)

Hawks get JJ with extras,  Hawks dont have a true PF. And only J Smith at SF. They are over cap already anyways. 

Blazers get Horford. Hes making 12 Mill over 4. Continue developing bench and have a centerpiece.

What would JJ have to approve to allow this to happen? Would he have to sign and trade? or just go willingly?

Trade machine are bad... but ok.  I don't know that the Hawks would give up Horford before Smith, but I do like Horford a lot.

 

A sign and trade would could happen if:

Blazer renounce JJ and he becomes an UFA.

JJ doesn't sign an offer sheet with another team.

We sign JJ to whatever the Hawks would pay him (say 24 mil 3 year deal) and we throw in pieces (freeland/babbit) to make up the difference.

(The Hawks can only do the trade if by adding the players we send keeps them at a roster of 15 or below.)

 

Smith is kind of the same player JJ is.  They both aren't exactly great shooters, but I suppose that is the way that scenario would pan out.

 

 

 

cant a team just waive a player? I assume this can be done to players that are in the last year of a contract, as opposed to amniesty that is used to remove a contract from payroll... 

Some parts of this are very foreign to me still. Can we just get Sabonis back please?

Posted 12/31/2012 4:21 PM

Posted By Blazer Fanatic on 12/31/2012 4:16 PM

Posted By joe.k on 12/31/2012 3:23 PM

@Blaser - do you think JJ would still be a beast if we tried trading him, and he said no? at that point he might be completely pissed at us... (then again, that might mean he plays his heart out for the remainder of this season so he can get a sweet deal for next yr

This happens sometimes.  We want what's best for JJ, but it's business, and the Blazer's success will always take priority over an individual player's wants or needs.

 

When you deal with an agent like Batum's, it can get ugly.  I hope we can work something out amicably with JJ either in getting him a solid deal thru a S&T or by resigning him here in Portland... somehow.  Not likely that the latter is possible, but it's might happen.

It would be the job of management to convince this is in the best interest of JJ. Other then that it turns into crap that Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol have dealt with in the past. Just demoralizing. At least thats what it would seem to me.

Posted 12/31/2012 4:31 PM

Posted By joe.k on 12/31/2012 3:19 PM

Posted By Blazer Fanatic on 12/31/2012 2:21 PM
A sign and trade with JJ would allow an over the cap team to move a larger contract for JJ.  Say and 7-8 mil verus 4 mil.  We could also include other players, like say Babbit, or Freeland.  And get a player in return that has a 12+ mil contract in a sign-and-trade.  Everyone gets paid, and we get the 12 mil center this team despiritely needs to be a contender.

You really think that it would be wise to package some 'semi-decent' bench player for a strong startign center? I mean I know babbit/Freeland aren't really doing anything now, but we have a strong starting 5 now, I feel that without a bench, even having a better center won't make us any better.

What do you think?

The assumption I made is the Matthews, Batum, LA, and Lillard are off the table for trades.  And yes, I think there is far more value in a S&T with JJ than resigning him now for that a similar amount.  Determining what JJ's market value is, remains kind of unknown at this point.  And specuating about it is necessary to talk about implication of either choice, but nothing is definative. 

 

So, let's assume, for the sake of argument, JJ is worth $8+ mil.  And the Blazers make room for $12 mil.  If we sign JJ to that amount, we have $4 mil and a $2.5 mil room exception let to fill the rest of our needs.  Our roster ends up looks almost the same as it does this year. OR we trade a JJ/Babbit/Freeland, and get a legit starting center.  Say... Horford/LA/Batum/Matthews/Lillard.  Eat your heart out Faker fans.  Would our bench be weak... sure.  But look at Mihami and the Fakers.

 

I don't think that we don't have a strong starting 5, but we don't have a center.  So our starting 5 is not as good as it could be.  We get killed on the boards versus teams with legit big men, and in general.  JJ gets boards no doubt, but think if he were a legit center in size how many more he could get, as well as getting other aspects of the game, like shot blocking and clogging the paint.

Posted 12/31/2012 4:33 PM

Posted By sedare on 12/31/2012 4:21 PM

It would be the job of management to convince this is in the best interest of JJ. Other then that it turns into crap that Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol have dealt with in the past. Just demoralizing. At least thats what it would seem to me.

Correct.  I don't think it's any secret to JJ what's going on.  I don't think the Blazers are keeping him in the dark, and that's very smart.  Communication is key, and Olshey has been doing that publicly, and I have no doubt he has and continues to do so privately with JJ.

Posted 12/31/2012 4:38 PM

Posted By sedare on 12/31/2012 4:20 PM

 

cant a team just waive a player? I assume this can be done to players that are in the last year of a contract, as opposed to amniesty that is used to remove a contract from payroll... 

Some parts of this are very foreign to me still. Can we just get Sabonis back please?

A team can waive a player in several cases.  This question gets into, when will it provide cap relief and non-guaranteed/guaranteed contracts.  But why waive them for cap relief when you can get something for them in return.  Often, waiving one player doesn't put you far enough under that cap to provide any real or substantial benifit.  For teams over the cap, this is one of the few ways to improve the team.

Posted 12/31/2012 4:44 PM

@ Chloe - you passion to keep assets as well as get more is great, and I agree on paying players to come to Portland.  However, there are rules (i. e. the CBA), and those rules changed just last year.  That is why we had a shortened seasoned, so that they could all agree upon what those rules were gonna be.  There is not much point talking about keeping this player or getting this player if we don't also talk about how it could realistically happen without breaking any of the rules.  Thus all the talk of Salary cap, the timing of resigning JJ vs trading him, and the risks of JJ walking vs the benefits of attaining more assets and then keeping JJ.

Posted 12/31/2012 4:51 PM

Posted By Blazer Fanatic on 12/31/2012 4:33 PM

Correct.  I don't think it's any secret to JJ what's going on.  I don't think the Blazers are keeping him in the dark, and that's very smart.  Communication is key, and Olshey has been doing that publicly, and I have no doubt he has and continues to do so privately with JJ.

Agreed

Plus, JJ has said, in not so many words that he doesn't see himself as a center.  Which is the part that bothers me the most about all this.  That one interview where he told Chris Haynes that he was a "power forward" makes me think he is planning on leaving.  He knows the Blazers can't offer him the starting 4 spot, and he sees himself as a starting 4.   

Posted 12/31/2012 4:58 PM

Posted By Blazer Fanatic on 12/31/2012 4:38 PM

Posted By sedare on 12/31/2012 4:20 PM

 

cant a team just waive a player? I assume this can be done to players that are in the last year of a contract, as opposed to amniesty that is used to remove a contract from payroll... 

Some parts of this are very foreign to me still. Can we just get Sabonis back please?

A team can waive a player in several cases.  This question gets into, when will it provide cap relief and non-guaranteed/guaranteed contracts.  But why waive them for cap relief when you can get something for them in return.  Often, waiving one player doesn't put you far enough under that cap to provide any real or substantial benifit.  For teams over the cap, this is one of the few ways to improve the team.

The only players who the Blazers could get cap relief by waiving this summer are Jeffries and Pavlovic, $1.5 mil and $1.4 mil respectively.  If the right free agent comes along, I can see us waiving them to offer more money, but I think they are worth more to keep as role players or trade pieces otherwise.

All the other contracts remaining on the books (not counting free agents obviously) are guaranteed so even if we waive them, their salary still comes out of our cap space.  

Posted 12/31/2012 4:59 PM

@Blazer Fanatic - wow you def know your stuff with all the salary talks, i'll be sure not to cross you with that! I hear what you're saying, but maybe blazer management thinks that Myers can develop pretty quickly. I mean look at LA as a rookie, he didnt do much... by the next year he was a solid contributor, so maybe we can use JJ to get some bench pieces, and rely on Myers - i dunno if i'd do that, but im just saying maybe thats the plan

Btw I'm very impressed with your remarks, it would be cool if you could check out my blog on this site. I just started it and need some help getting it off the ground (knowing i got some readers...), but in all honesty, i think you'd enjoy it - check out my first two postings if you have a chance (next one should be up by thurs)

Posted 12/31/2012 5:03 PM

Posted By riverman on 12/31/2012 10:53 AM
Anyone who is familiar with my posts knows I'm not a numbers cruncher when it comes to stats but when we talk about cap space and JJ aren't we forgetting to subtract what he makes now from the raise he'll expect next season? I think he makes 4.5mil ??? so if he makes 7.2 next year we only need 2.7mil to resign him over what we're spending now? I wasn't aware that Freeland made more than Babbit...I thought 3 year vets made more than rookies? At any rate, I don't see any problem resigning JJ and keeping all our assets while shoring up the bench by waiving bench players, trading them or signing a guy like Pekovic to add to the core. Also something to keep in mind this season is that JJ, Luke and Nolan are all playing for a contract. Of the 3, to me, JJ has earned it

I'm glad you asked riverman.  This is important to understand.  The Blazers have as low as $9 mil in cap space, and as high as $12 mil, next season... WITHOUT JJ.  So neither the $4 mil JJ is making now, or the cap hold of $7 mil are factored into that available cap space of $9-12 mil.  Anything you sign JJ for would be subtracted from that $9-12 mil.

 

We're only speculating on how much JJ can make, so I'm only throwing out possible salaries for the sake of discussing the implications.

 

If the Blazers end up with $12 mil in cap space (best case scenario I think) and JJ signs with Portland for $7 mil (another best case scenario), we'll have 5 mil in cap space remaining.  Jefferies, Pavlovic, Babbit, Williams, Smith (and I am not certain, although I stated early Price was garanteed next season, whether or not Price is garanteed or not) would not be signed at this point.

 

So, we'll end up with basically the same team we have this year.  Freeland makes 3 mil.  Babbits cap hold is about the same, but we renounced Babbit.  Meaning, that amount does not count against our cap next year, although we can sign him now for a lesser amount should Luke and the Blazers agree to teams during free agency. 

 

Suggesting we could sign Pekovic for $5 mil or less, which we would have to do UNDER that cap, isn't possible.  There's no way Pek signs for $5 mil.  And again, we assumed a "best case scenario" for what we pay JJ and what our cap space is.

Posted 12/31/2012 5:04 PM

Ok what about right now? If the Blazers went for a trade deadline trade, and say JJ approved it where ever it leads...

They can waive then... Williams, Smith, and Babbitt? Since they had their options declined? If they waive them mid season does that matter for cap space? 

Just thought of this... If Blazers make a trade and it puts them over cap midseason (AND DO NOT WAIVE Because they would potentially have a 15Roster) is the penalty prorated? Or does it penalize as if it was the whole season? Or is there something completely different for this situation?

Posted 12/31/2012 5:06 PM

Posted By ubahn82 on 12/31/2012 4:44 PM

@ Chloe - you passion to keep assets as well as get more is great, and I agree on paying players to come to Portland.  However, there are rules (i. e. the CBA), and those rules changed just last year.  That is why we had a shortened seasoned, so that they could all agree upon what those rules were gonna be.  There is not much point talking about keeping this player or getting this player if we don't also talk about how it could realistically happen without breaking any of the rules.  Thus all the talk of Salary cap, the timing of resigning JJ vs trading him, and the risks of JJ walking vs the benefits of attaining more assets and then keeping JJ.

 

Great post.

Posted 12/31/2012 5:10 PM

Posted By ubahn82 on 12/31/2012 4:58 PM

Posted By Blazer Fanatic on 12/31/2012 4:38 PM
A team can waive a player in several cases.  This question gets into, when will it provide cap relief and non-guaranteed/guaranteed contracts.  But why waive them for cap relief when you can get something for them in return.  Often, waiving one player doesn't put you far enough under that cap to provide any real or substantial benifit.  For teams over the cap, this is one of the few ways to improve the team.

The only players who the Blazers could get cap relief by waiving this summer are Jeffries and Pavlovic, $1.5 mil and $1.4 mil respectively.  If the right free agent comes along, I can see us waiving them to offer more money, but I think they are worth more to keep as role players or trade pieces otherwise.

All the other contracts remaining on the books (not counting free agents obviously) are guaranteed so even if we waive them, their salary still comes out of our cap space.  

I should clarify, I was refering more towards a S&T for JJ (6-8 mil) versus just waiving him, not so much small contracts and low minute bench players making 1-2 mil.

Posted 12/31/2012 5:12 PM

Posted By Blazer Fanatic on 12/31/2012 4:31 PM
The assumption I made is the Matthews, Batum, LA, and Lillard are off the table for trades.  And yes, I think there is far more value in a S&T with JJ than resigning him now for that a similar amount.  Determining what JJ's market value is, remains kind of unknown at this point.  And specuating about it is necessary to talk about implication of either choice, but nothing is definative. 

 

So, let's assume, for the sake of argument, JJ is worth $8+ mil.  And the Blazers make room for $12 mil.  If we sign JJ to that amount, we have $4 mil and a $2.5 mil room exception let to fill the rest of our needs.  Our roster ends up looks almost the same as it does this year. OR we trade a JJ/Babbit/Freeland, and get a legit starting center.  Say... Horford/LA/Batum/Matthews/Lillard.  Eat your heart out Faker fans.  Would our bench be weak... sure.  But look at Mihami and the Fakers.

 

I don't think that we don't have a strong starting 5, but we don't have a center.  So our starting 5 is not as good as it could be.  We get killed on the boards versus teams with legit big men, and in general.  JJ gets boards no doubt, but think if he were a legit center in size how many more he could get, as well as getting other aspects of the game, like shot blocking and clogging the paint.

I think with just obtaining a starting center, packaging a Babbit/Freeland isn't justified.  That will just make our already weak bench weaker, and we will have to run our starters even harder than what they are doing now.  

Now, if we could package JJ, Babbit/Freeland, and a Price/Smith for a starting center and a reliable backup PG to a team that needs big men.  Then I'd say go for it.  Then we could give whoever we have left between Babbit and Freeland the opportunity to try to be our backup F/PF behind our all-star, give Williams or Papanikalou the opportunity to try to be our backup SG, with Claver and Barton remaining in the wings, and we would have Damian and whatever backup PG we got in the deal, then the cherry on top would be a starting center to defend guys like Howard and mentor Meyers.   

Still too many variables to say we will contend with that team, but we will be closer to our goal.

Posted 12/31/2012 5:14 PM

Posted By Blazer Fanatic on 12/31/2012 5:10 PM

The only players who the Blazers could get cap relief by waiving this summer are Jeffries and Pavlovic, $1.5 mil and $1.4 mil respectively.  If the right free agent comes along, I can see us waiving them to offer more money, but I think they are worth more to keep as role players or trade pieces otherwise.

All the other contracts remaining on the books (not counting free agents obviously) are guaranteed so even if we waive them, their salary still comes out of our cap space.  

I should clarify, I was refering more towards a S&T for JJ (6-8 mil) versus just waiving him, not so much small contracts and low minute bench players making 1-2 mil.

Ah sorry for the confusion,  I was just trying to provide Sedare with more data about our salary cap situation by adding on to what you said

Posted 12/31/2012 5:16 PM

Posted By sedare on 12/31/2012 5:04 PM

Ok what about right now? If the Blazers went for a trade deadline trade, and say JJ approved it where ever it leads...

They can waive then... Williams, Smith, and Babbitt? Since they had their options declined? If they waive them mid season does that matter for cap space? 

Just thought of this... If Blazers make a trade and it puts them over cap midseason (AND DO NOT WAIVE Because they would potentially have a 15Roster) is the penalty prorated? Or does it penalize as if it was the whole season? Or is there something completely different for this situation?

Actually, if we hit the cap after completing a sign-and-trade (without going over), we could technically resign Babbit, Smith, AND Williams OVER the cap using their Bird rights so long as they do not sign an offersheet with another team.

 

They don't need to be waived, they are UFA's at the end of the season by virtue of renouncing their rights.

 

There's no significant penalty or luxury tax issue for exceeding the cap (soft cap), the luxury tax level is a higher amount than the salary cap.

 

The soft cap (58 mil) is the amount you cannot exceed to sign free agents. 

Posted 12/31/2012 5:21 PM

Yeah I get that,it just sucks that soo much talk about A player who,at this time last year was getting waived by sacramento. Blazers used to contend for titles and used to be like 2-3 players deep at every position, I mean you had Rasheed Wallace backed up by shawn kemp. Damon Staudamire,Greg anthony,and Rod strickland all at pointguard. I agree with what your saying,and Blazer fanatic can figure out all the numbers for you,but what I'm saying is that theres a message sent if we lose a player like that and its not a good one, Unless we get alot in return,and what really could be get in return for him? Other teams will try to low ball us knowing damn well he's a free agent.Regardless of the rules or numbers, The players Just see Winning,they dont have alot of patiance, just look how Kobe Bryant was acting 5 years ago.Sometimes the message the team sends is just as valuable as the player it resigns.

Posted 12/31/2012 5:22 PM

Posted By ubahn82 on 12/31/2012 5:12 PM

I think with just obtaining a starting center, packaging a Babbit/Freeland isn't justified.  That will just make our already weak bench weaker, and we will have to run our starters even harder than what they are doing now.  

Now, if we could package JJ, Babbit/Freeland, and a Price/Smith for a starting center and a reliable backup PG to a team that needs big men.  Then I'd say go for it.  Then we could give whoever we have left between Babbit and Freeland the opportunity to try to be our backup F/PF behind our all-star, give Williams or Papanikalou the opportunity to try to be our backup SG, with Claver and Barton remaining in the wings, and we would have Damian and whatever backup PG we got in the deal, then the cherry on top would be a starting center to defend guys like Howard and mentor Meyers.   

Still too many variables to say we will contend with that team, but we will be closer to our goal.

 

I don't necessarily disagree.  And that's the reason I made this thread.  This kind of discussion is fantastic.  But what I stuggle to understand, is how fans are led to believe we can resign JJ for 7-8 mil and somehow have a much improved team next year.  It will look almost like the same team this year.  The same team Blazer fans aren't trilled with and want to see more tallent, better rebounding, and higher points in the paint to be a real contender.

Posted 12/31/2012 5:29 PM

Posted By knorton181 on 12/31/2012 12:06 PM

Just saying, if you're an NBA player you don't sign a deal with one team because of a oh they've had my back and gave me a chance when not many would have, or oh but the fanbase loves me. Over the chance, if not a gaurantee, to start on another team in the NBA. There's no way he unseats Aldridge, and everyone keeps saying we bring in Pekovic or someone to add to the core, which I'm sure he is aware of, too.

 

Cap aside:

If JJ gets the chance to start PF on another team this offseason, there's absolutely no doubt in my mind he takes that gig in a heartbeat. Everyone talking about signing JJ, I'm starting to believe that JJ would accept a 5-7 mil 4 year deal, I don't think it's about the money with him, or like "look at my numbers, I am one of the best in the league I deserve to get that" yadayada.. JJ wants to play the game, he wants to play HIS game.

I believe we probably would sign him IF WE COULD. The purpose of trading him is that we don't lose now one of the upper-echelon players in the league for nothing. Olshey's not an idiot. There are no restrictions with JJ. 

There's only 1 way I see us not trading him :
 if JJ makes a promise that, as long as whatever JJ wants and asks for (20-30 mins per game, starting center, a significant role, etc.) is gauranteed, he will resign next year under bird rights.

The odds of him walking far outweigh the odds of him staying. It would be ludicrous otherwise to think he wouldn't walk to a team to play longterm at his position, potentially or gauranteeing him to starting. And I think HE believes the he is a starter.

Great post.

Posted 12/31/2012 6:00 PM

It seems like keeping JJ wont be feasible from the above post about him wanting to go somewhere he can start. That makes complete and total sence.  So now, we can S&T him? We can not part with JJ without getting a center in return, or we just let him go after this season. That would leave alot of things lacking at the start of free agency tho.

Ok so who to persue in the FA this offseason... hmm.

Going to assume we want a quality backup PG... and drop smith and take price on bench.
Isaiah Thomas/Tyreke Evans/Aaron Brooks quandry in SAC. I think any of those 3 are a capable backup... even if Evans lost his identity.

Jamaal Tinsley did amazing in Utah after pretty much not existing for a few years...

Wait. we could debate Free Agents all day. But here is my question. Lets say we end up with a decent Center in trade and lose some SF/PF depth (if we can call it that) and dont end up with a PG.

What are we going to be working with money wise to even persue one? 2.5M? 4M? After all, we are still going to want to find out if Williams can play SG or if the Blazers look elsewhere for a SG. Barton wont be ready. Claver... not fit. Hes a SF. He is only there as a lack of options right now.

Blah.

Im not very good at this. LOL

Posted 12/31/2012 6:09 PM

That's the question sedare.  It's not a simple as some fans think.  It's a complex problem that requires well thought out assumptions and a complex solution. 

 

Posted 12/31/2012 6:56 PM

Posted By sedare on 12/31/2012 6:00 PM
<p>Blah.</p>
<p>

</p>
<p>Im not very good at this. LOL</p>

Haha.. if any of us were, we would be the Blazers GM instead of olshey...

It is fun to tall about tho..

Posted 12/31/2012 8:52 PM

Well now we just have the principal result to debate now.

Do we trade JJ on a S&T for a center and leap headfirst going against our commitment to rebuild and aim for the 8thseed1stroundlossvsClippers/Thunder or (what I see happening) we keep what we have, and develop our talent and start limiting our starters time, and figure out the assets we have and what we dont want.

So now we get to watch this team develop it looks like.

But we are in the same position still. Still no center, and now we wait for Olshey to figure out what is going to be the best solution for the long term success of this team.

Posted 12/31/2012 10:09 PM

I agree this rebuild will take some time.. it won't be completed by next year... therefore it is critical not to get bogged down in contracts that eliminate our possibility for continued growth... unfortunately jj's contract is up this summer so we have to make a decision on him.. giving him the contract he deserves straight up will kill our flexibility an stop this rebuild in it's tracks. Whatever we do, we need to improve as a team.. not just stay where we are, that is a point of a rebuild, but to keep this rebuild going, we cannot just give out contracts that limits our ability to keep improving..

Posted 01/01/2013 11:47 AM

I'm just resolved to accept some fans refuse to accept that by signing JJ, we end up with the same team next year.  The same fans would agree this year's team is not a real contender and want to compete for the NBA championship.   It's baffling.  Can't have your cake and eat it too.

Posted 01/01/2013 11:53 AM

Agreed Fanatic.  All you can do is try...your efforts in accurately painting Portland's CBA picture, admirable.  Thank you.

Posted 01/01/2013 12:00 PM

Posted By sedare on 12/31/2012 6:00 PM

It seems like keeping JJ wont be feasible from the above post about him wanting to go somewhere he can start. That makes complete and total sence.  So now, we can S&T him? We can not part with JJ without getting a center in return, or we just let him go after this season. That would leave alot of things lacking at the start of free agency tho.

Wait. we could debate Free Agents all day. But here is my question. Lets say we end up with a decent Center in trade and lose some SF/PF depth (if we can call it that) and dont end up with a PG.

What are we going to be working with money wise to even persue one? 2.5M? 4M? After all, we are still going to want to find out if Williams can play SG or if the Blazers look elsewhere for a SG. Barton wont be ready. Claver... not fit. Hes a SF. He is only there as a lack of options right now.

 

I agree, losing JJ and not getting a legit center, who can rebound, block shots, and clog up the paint would be bad.

 

I think the hope is that Elliot Williams and Baton can play back up SG, but I they aren't there yet, and I don't know that they will be.  Need more time to develope those two. Idealy, I think we need a PG/SG that is a solid 6th man and can come in for Lillard or Matthews and score.  OJ Mayo is the type of player that would be a great fit in Portland.  If we ended free agency with 2 players like a Pekovic/Mayo, I feel it would be the best case scenario, and "move the needle" (as Olshey would say).

Posted 01/01/2013 12:17 PM

Posted By BDawg on 01/01/2013 11:53 AM

Agreed Fanatic.  All you can do is try...your efforts in accurately painting Portland's CBA picture, admirable.  Thank you.

I think if all Blazer fans were on the same page, with a solid understanding of how the numbers effect Portland, they could then make their own assumptions about how much to sign JJ for, or S&T JJ for, or who to S&T JJ for.  Without that foundation, it's not constructive discussion.  It's just fantasy.  I think threads should come with a disclaimer, either:

*this thread is what I want from Santa Clause

or

*this thread contains facts, figures, and real world implications of assumed varriables.

 

I don't mind the assumed varriables being a bit far reaching.  The distinction between "contructive" discussion and "not so much" is being able understand and explain the effect on the Blazers, to answer how it moves the needle forward, and show that the result is even possible within the rules of the CBA and whether another team involved would even be party to a given assumption.

 

 

Posted 01/01/2013 12:25 PM

I would like to see us acquire JJ Reddick or Eric Maynor to get that 20pt scorer off the bench.

Posted 01/01/2013 12:45 PM

I like Redick a lot.  He's making 6 mil right now.  That's not exactly cheap.  If we could get him for 4-6, he would be the ideal back up to both Lillard and Wes as he can play both possitions.  Twenty to thirty minutes a game would be exactly what Portland needs to maintain and extend a lead when our starters are resting. 

 

I'm not as excited about Maynor.  He's cheap, but not really impressed with him never averaging more than 16 min in his career or more than 5.2 points per game.  He missed huge chunks of 2 of the 5 years he's been in the league.

Posted 01/01/2013 12:58 PM

I think as a GM though.. You don't wait until the offseason to do a sign-and-trade. Sign-and-trades often happen at the end of the year when you realize hey, we're not in the playoffs, this player didn't work anyways on a team that was shooting for the playoffs. The other option was to let that player go and just walk... i.e raymond felton.

But last years team was different, this year's team is "rebuilding" or at least remodeling.To me, Olshey will without a doubt look at trading JJ before the deadline, but if he doesn't get any offers that in turn really "move the needle" than I'm sure he would rather just let him walk or try to resign him with his bird rights, at that point. But as a GM, right now he knows this team is one the rise, moving forward toward playoff contention in the near-future. Realistically, we need some more pieces. And even more realistically, there's a very big chance that JJ doesn't resign here this offseason.

BUT, like I said in my previous post, there is still a slight chance we resign him, but unless JJ has made some commitment to Portland, longterm, be it with a promise to get high minutes or to get a starting gig, than Olshey's gonna look at trading him before the deadline. We could even pull off a trade similar to last season with Gerald Wallace (who at the time I loved as well)

Posted 01/01/2013 2:34 PM

JJ has to agree to a trade that were to take place before the trade deal-line.  Portland would be trading him for his current value, $4 mil.  He's on a one year contract.  They can't void that contract, sign him to an $8 mil contract, and then trade him before the trade dead-line.  I don't believe JJ will be traded till the end of the season, if at all, because only then can Portland sign him as an UFA for 4, or 6, or 12 million, and trade him at that value.  The Blazers also have a $2.25 mil trade exception they recieved from the Felton trade that would allow Portland to aquire an asset $2.25 mil over what we give up.

 

A sign and trade would allow a team who is over the cap, to aquire JJ (say $8 mil).  JJ cannot go to an over the cap team otherwise as an UFA.  I doubt he wants to play for a bottom feeder, and I don't think there is a better rebuilding opportunity elsewhere in the league than where he is now in Portland.  Felton was only able to go to NY through a through a S&T, as NY was over the cap.

 

A S&T at the end of the season isn't as unlikely as some might think, but it's also possible that JJ could "walk" to an under the cap team. 

 

If JJ becomes a restricted free agent, and we renounce his Bird Rights to provide $7.2 mil in cap space, were we to resign him, we can only do so under the cap.  This is a loop hole that was close for players on a 1 year contract.  So that you couldn't sign consecutive 1 year deals, and then give that player a huge payoff and multi-year deal, over the cap using his Bird Rights, after you've spent the last few years signing UFA's under the cap.

 

We traded Wallace for the same reason, opting to keep Batum.  There just isn't enough cap space to go around to pay 2 guys that much who play the same position. 

 

 

Posted 01/01/2013 3:51 PM

I was gonna write a huge thing about where he would fit next year, team's who are under the cap that wouldn't need a sign and trade where he would probably fit very well. But at the same, I'm not going to play what if's with every possible situation. Because neither of us know exactly what JJ would be looking for. 

 

But I do think there's a significant possibility he gets traded to a team where he would have a possibility to start, to a team that would want to resign him. And us at least get something decent in return to move the needle. It's pretty up in the air though