Please Indiana Match
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  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/05/2012 10:19 AM

    I am going to take a different approach to looking at the Hibbert situation then many of you have.

    First I want Indiana to match the deal because Hibbert is just not worth a max contract. 

    Here are some stats to show why:
    The basics: 12.8 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 2.0 bpg, .497 FG%, 71.1 FT%, 19.35 PER On the surface Hibbert has decent numbers but when you start to look closer some things jump out at you. 
    Advanced stats: 16.6 rebound rate (20th among qualifying centers), 20.7 defensive rebound rate (33rd), 12.5 offensive rebound rate (12th), 10.7 assist rate (22nd), 12.7 turnover rate (21st) 
    Hibbert posted a decent rebounding rate but not enough to fix our rebounding issues especially consider LA ranked 48th among PF is rebounding rate and Hickson who is likely leaving ranked 24th. This is even more troubling because Hibbert is a much better offensive rebounder than defensive rebounder. He also has a rather high turnover rate. 

    Offensively he is not great either 
    Shooting percentages by location: At rim: 56.8% (centers averaged 65.2% from that distance in ’11-‘12), 3-9 feet: 51.1%, (center average: 40.8%), 10-15 feet: 34.8% (center average: 38%), 16-23 feet: 34% (center average: 39.3%)
    With the exception of 3-9 feet Hibbert's shooting percentages were all below average for NBA centers. Note that last year was Hibbert's best ever in terms of shooting and if he regressed these would look even worse. 

    However, Hibbert is supposed to anchor our defense so lets look and see how he does there. 
    Defense: versus post-ups: .717 ppp (78th percentile), as big defender dealing with the PNR ball-handler: .776 ppp (55th percentile), as big defender dealing with PNR roll man: .893 ppp (40th percentile)
    He was very good against the post but struggled a bit with pick and roll especially getting back to his man on the roll. Portland will certainly benefit from his shot blocking Hibbert's defense is not good enough to justify a max contract. 
    Opponent Counterpart 48-Minute Production
    Position
    FGA
    eFG%
    FTA
    iFG
    Reb
    Ast
    T/O
    Blk
    PF
    Pts
    PER*
    PG
    SG
    SF
    PF
    C
    13.8   .472   5.3   55%  12.7   2.3   2.3   2.2   5.8   16.4   14.4  
    As you can see he does a nice job on defense but Portland needs more than just a good player if we are going to pay him superstar money. 
    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. Geobronc
    Geobronc
    Posts: 21

    Posted 07/05/2012 12:06 PM

    Then if not Hibbert, who is left to pick up at Center? Sign Joel P back? Sign Kaman? Let Joel F. take this spot? 
    If not Hibbert, what do we now do with all the cap space now that most of ALL the good FA PG's and Centers are gone?
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  1. diablo2689
    diablo2689
    Posts: 122

    Posted 07/05/2012 12:15 PM

    I think it is cute how much time you put into making your point, but the truth is at 7'2'' and being paired next to LA, he is bound to do better on team like ours than Indiana. None of the players on Indiana are great defenders except maybe Hansbrough who just works hard. Everyone else is known for their offense. SO on the defensive side, he will have help, but the pick and roll problems do trouble me. On offense though, he won't be a #1 option. He will get wide open dunks from a double team on Lillard or LA. The role he will play for us will fit him perfectly. He won't be asked to do a lot, and we will get the same production on offense that the Pacers did (maybe more from working out in the off season to get better). Oshley got him excited for some reason, so i say wait and see his play speak for itself. As for the max contract, he is an athletic 7'2'' MAN!! they are not common. He will get rebounds based on that alone. He deserves a lot of money. A max contract, probably not, but if we want to pry him away from another team that needs him, we have too!
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  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/05/2012 12:26 PM

    @geobronc check out my plan b threa to see how I address the center situation

    @diablo I see your point but Indiana is full of good defender, West while not great is still solid, Granger is a very good defender as George and Hill. You say Hibbert will get rebounds which is probably true I need to see consistent double doubles not feel like we are drastically over paying. Especially considering before last year Hibbert's Wins added was below average in the NBA. 
    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. diablo2689
    diablo2689
    Posts: 122

    Posted 07/05/2012 12:40 PM

    I forgot about Paul George. He is a good defender. Put as for the others, i would need to see stats on them to see if they are actually solid defenders. Another point, you said LA is 48th in rebounding and Hibbert is roughly 24th? How many teams have two bigs combined for higher than that? I know there are some beasts in the league, but how many teams would have a better combo stat wise than that? OKC? LAL?  MIN? ORL? BOS? idk..
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  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/05/2012 12:47 PM

    LA is 48th for Power Forwards and Hibbert is 20 for Center but I will check
    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. Andy Blacksmith
    Andy Blacksmith
    Posts: 87

    Posted 07/05/2012 1:00 PM

    You're right. We probably shouldn't sign an all star center. We don't need one or anything.
    I am a fan of Change for the better
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/05/2012 1:08 PM

    So here is the list of teams with at least one rebounder who ranker higher than Hibbert and at least one rebounder higher than LA.
    Houston 
    Orlando 
    Chicago
    Clips
    Lakers
    Denver 
    Memphis
    OKC 
    Toronto 
    Cleveland
    Sacramento
    Minnesota
    New Jersey
    Detroit
    San Antonio
    Utah
    Miami
    Milwaukee 
    Phoenix
    New York

    That is 20 teams, to address this Portland would be wise to bring back Pryzbilla 17.9 rebound rate 13th at the center position and hope Leonard develops quickly. 
    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/05/2012 4:39 PM

    What we do not need is to pay 58 million dollars to a man who has never averaged 15 points or 10 rebounds per game. Especially after taking a center with a lottery pick.
    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. Austin Martin
    Austin Martin
    Posts: 92

    Posted 07/05/2012 6:27 PM

    So who starts at center for us this year? Priz is over the hill, our lottery pick is a project pick, not an immediate starter. If not hibbart, then who?
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  1. hansonjosh7
    hansonjosh7
    Posts: 5

    Posted 07/05/2012 6:29 PM

    I think you are missing an important stat here. Because the Pacers were so deep, none of their players played all that many minutes. The fact that Hibbert only averaged 29.8 minutes per game makes all of his stats lower. If he played a full 35 or 40 minutes a game, his stats are bound to be higher and average a double-double easily.
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/05/2012 7:13 PM

    If he plays that much he increases chance of injury and it means our bench is not very good. Wanting Hibbert is one thing paying him more than LA is another
    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. RipCityVice
    RipCityVice
    Posts: 126

    Posted 07/06/2012 12:49 AM

    You can't be serious saying Roy Hibbert isn't worth the max contract. How many quality seven footers are out there, much less All-Star 7-footers? Who else should fill the 5 for Portland? Kaman is washed up, Joel is decent at this point (don't get me wrong, I love the guy), and heads up, Shaq and Yao are gone. If you have a chance at getting Hibbert, you take it. He's gotten better every year, and if you think that he wouldn't thrive alongside LMA, you're not thinking it through. He's just what the organization likes too; he's not only great on the court, but off it as well. 
    So you can say, oh he's not worth a max contract cuz he's not a budding legend, but is that really what matters? Just cuz the Cavs had LeBron and Shaq, they didn't get a ring. 
    Tell me one current NBA FA center NOT NAMED DWIGHT HOWARD you would rather have than the young, healthy, talented, likable, all-star Hibbert? 

    Look, if Indy matches, they match and are strapped for cash a year or two from now and won't be able to build as good a roster as they have now. (Toxic offer memories, anyone?) They don't match, then Portland gets their man at the 5 and one of the better frontlines in the league.
    We'll all find out between the 11th and 14th.
    I am a fan of Bleeding Blazer Red Every Day
  1. Sean Buchanan
    Sean Buchanan
    Posts: 3

    Posted 07/06/2012 12:55 AM

    Dude i totally argee theres no-one i would rather see playing center for Blazers this year, hes a growing player and by what i've seen from him just these couple years hes a pretty good player
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/06/2012 1:05 AM

    Um Pacers have 24 million in cap space this year I think they are doing okay
    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. RipCityVice
    RipCityVice
    Posts: 126

    Posted 07/06/2012 1:18 AM

     In a league with so few quality centers, Hibbert represents a significant advantage for the Pacers against most of the teams they face.  While it is true the final four teams in the playoff bracket (Miami, Oklahoma City, Boston and San Antonio) lacked pure centers, all would jump at the chance to have a player like Hibbert in the middle.

    An Indiana team that considers itself on the brink of joining those elite contenders can ill afford to lose a vital part of its nucleus.

    When studied from a business standpoint, however, the decision becomes much less obvious.

    Financially, Portland might actually have done the Pacers a favor. As the team holding Hibbert's restricted free agent rights, Indiana could have offered a maximum of five years and $79 million. If the Pacers choose to keep him, they need only match Portland's offer of four years and $58 million.

    Even so, it represents a substantial investment for a franchise struggling for financial solvency.

    Although max contracts are nowhere near the burden they were before the current Collective Bargaining Agreement tied them directly to the salary cap, they still are supposed to be reserved for elite players. 

    And then there is the not-so-small matter of the future. Maxing Hibbert would raise the financial bar for every other contract the Pacers negotiate.

    Consider a year from now when David West is an unrestricted free agent; how can the Pacers make an argument West should make even a dollar less than Hibbert? How about in two years, when Paul George comes due? If the big contracts start piling up, they'll be right back where they were a few years ago, with an overstuffed payroll and an understaffed roster.

    Make no mistake, this is not an easy decision. Strong arguments can be built for both sides.

    The idea is to make a decision that favors neither basketball nor business, but benefits both.
    I am a fan of Bleeding Blazer Red Every Day
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/06/2012 1:25 AM

    Elite players enough said Hibbert is good but not elite. Portland made a desperation move that I hope works out.
    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/08/2012 7:28 PM

    Only a few days left anyone hear anything yet?
    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/10/2012 4:47 PM

    Why do I feel bad I am getting my wish?
    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. boomtown
    boomtown
    Posts: 272

    Posted 07/10/2012 5:49 PM

    I personally don't think this is a great year for free agents.  The big names are typically older players, and well, many of them already have their destinations set.

    cmeese, the one thing you forgot to include in your analysis is any knowledge of what you've actually seen on the court.  Hibbert has improved his game tenfold since college and he continues to develop, working on post moves, improving his shot blocking ability, speed.  To me it's actually scary to think where Hibbert could be in 5 years if he continues to improve facets of his game.  He shooting touch has improved, and if he can develop that bread and butter short-range jumper, like Ewing, well, I just think you really sell him short.  And in a year in which Center's are slim pickins on the free agent market, I think Hibbert is definitely worth the money.

    But I personally do not care what people get paid, I just want a guy who can help the team win games and hibbert can do that.  whether he makes 7, 8, or 12 million a year don't matter.  if he helps portland win a championship, that's what's most important.  and in 3 years from now, it's real feasbile all your stats are completely overhauled with much improved stats.  So I think you're wrong.
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  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/10/2012 10:38 PM

    I hate to buy potential though so I go by production right now Hibbert will likely improve just not sure how much.
    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. boomtown
    boomtown
    Posts: 272

    Posted 07/11/2012 3:12 PM

    I think you really contradicted yourself on this one.  

    I mean, you talk about how you want a defensive presence, how you like MKG, you want a rebounder....

    Last year Hibbert got the Pacers into the 2nd round of the playoffs.  Do you not want to make the playoffs?

    Have you see Hibbert play or do you just crunch numbers?  If you only crunch numbers, then what about 9 blocked shots vs Orlando in game 1 last year?  If you crunch numbers, then what about 19 points and 18 rebounds vs the Heat in game 3?  What about the fact that his rebounds climbed to 11.2 per game in the playoffs and he averaged over 3 blocked shots per game.  The mo-fo STEPPED UP his game.

    My problem with Hibbert coming out of college is that he was flat-footed, to me he was like a big, slow freight train, somewhat clumsy and methodical... predictable.  But if you didn't know him in Georgetown, and if you haven't seen him in the NBA, and if you're only judging him for stats on a macro level, then you're really missing the boat.  You need to look at his footwork, his speed, hops, and all the facets he's improved upon.  He's getting more consistent, and he's still improving. Like I said, if he develops that short-range automatic jumper like Ewing had, well, with Aldridge we don't even need that, but Hibbert could emerge as one of the top few centers in the NBA in the next few years and the fact that he's already got playoff experience, well, he's a winner.  And I'm not sure after all the posts of yours that I've read, I'm really not understanding why you don't like this guy.   I think you're wrong, and I think you know you're wrong, but you so much want to believe all those numbers you crunched.... but I think you just need to watch him play more... and I think in 3 years time, money shmoney, fans are really going to wish we'd got him... he's definitely proved me wrong b/c I really thought he'd be a D league guy when he came out of school... He's got Drummond size, but he's also 3 inches taller.  Man, him by LA's side woulda been so great.

    and now I'm shouting at the wind b/c it won't happen, but I hope we revisit this conversation in a few years so you can show me a picture of you with your shoe in your mouth.
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  1. boomtown
    boomtown
    Posts: 272

    Posted 07/11/2012 3:16 PM

    lol.  seriously.  I want a shoe, that says HIBBERT on the sole.... you put your foot in that shoe, open your mouth as big as you can, shove that sombich in there, and snap a picture.

    post that crap on twitter, here, everywhere.

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  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/11/2012 3:59 PM

    I liked Hibbert but the whole situation reeked of desperation. I think he is a good player but locking up 40 million in 3 players which we would be doing in Batum, Aldridge, and Hibbert seemed foolish that pretty much guaranteed our core would stay the same and I just do not feel that it was good enough to win a title and that should be the goal. 

    As far as Hibbert's playoff numbers go talk about context in the first round he played the soft Orlando Magic without Dwight Howard which meant he was rebounding against 6'9" big baby not exactly elite competition furthermore, he was playing a jump shooting team that struggled to get good looks with Howard lots of rebound opportunities when the other team shoots 41%. 

    In the second round he played against Miami whose best rebounder was Lebron James so he should have expected to a see a rise in his rebounding numbers against Haslem and Joel Anthony. Those numbers are not a surprise what is a surprise was the number of shots he took or the lack thereof for a man being offered a max deal he should have attempted more than 9.6 shots per game against weaker competition.
    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. boomtown
    boomtown
    Posts: 272

    Posted 07/11/2012 5:18 PM

    so because he don't shoot enough you don't want him?  what do you want?  A guy who complements our team or dominates?   Cuz the way I see it, Lillard, Aldridge, Matthews, maybe Batum if he stays, Elliot, Barton, and others are more than competent scorers.  Didn't you say you wanted some defense?  

    Hibbert raised his game in the playoffs, he didn't regress.  I just don't think you give him any credit even tho he seems to fit the bill of what you want... and that don't make sense to me.  At 7-2 and the ability to average 3 blocked shots per game, to get 9 in a single playoff game.   Look, there are no real dominant centers, and having a 7-2 guy is an asset and when you have guys that complement one-another, well, I think Hibbert's a great piece of the puzzle and I do think with him, portland could be a playoff team this coming year... they would have a hard frontcourt to reckon with.   I dunno man.  you crunch a lot of numbers, but I think you just miss the big picture here.
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  1. boomtown
    boomtown
    Posts: 272

    Posted 07/11/2012 5:30 PM

    so because he don't shoot enough you don't want him?  what do you want?  A guy who complements our team or dominates?   Cuz the way I see it, Lillard, Aldridge, Matthews, maybe Batum if he stays, Elliot, Barton, and others are more than competent scorers.  Didn't you say you wanted some defense?  

    Hibbert raised his game in the playoffs, he didn't regress.  I just don't think you give him any credit even tho he seems to fit the bill of what you want... and that don't make sense to me.  At 7-2 and the ability to average 3 blocked shots per game, to get 9 in a single playoff game.   Look, there are no real dominant centers, and having a 7-2 guy is an asset.  When you have guys that complement one-another, well, I think Hibbert's a great piece of the puzzle and I do think with him, portland could be a playoff team this coming year... they would have a hard frontcourt to reckon with.   I dunno man.  you crunch a lot of numbers, but I think you just miss the big picture here.

    You say the competition sucked in the playoffs, but he went up against davis who's no slouch, anderson, battier.... hibbert did what he was supposed to do, but to me he looked like a star doing it.   He had 34 blocks in 11 playoff games.  he shot 50%, he friggen dominated on the glass.  If you act like he was expected to do that, then that should make you all the more happier because he did what was expected.   It also showed that he can rise up to the competition and take his game to another level to help the team.  It's not easy getting 9 blocked shots in a game, I dont' care who you're playing.  He scored over 20 points a handful of times on the year and he topped 30 once.  He's shown marketable improvements... 

    bottom line is, you don't need hibbert to score 20 ppg when you have the offensive talent portland has, and you massively sell him short.  his fills exactly the need portland needs and if he continues to improve, it's feasible this guy is averaging 15 pts, 15 boards, and 5 blocks per game in the next 5 years.   and to that I say goddamn.  

    get that shoe and a fat magic marker.  HIBBERT.  
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  1. boomtown
    boomtown
    Posts: 272

    Posted 07/11/2012 5:32 PM

    weird, i dunno why it posted before i was done typing and then posted again.  
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  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/11/2012 6:06 PM

    I think Hibbert would be a great fit but at that price we are limited in what we could add around him that is the problem. Dwight Howard Hibbert is not, he is a good shot blocker but not a good enough defender to make everyone better. 

    That is the reason I wanted Asik he was an elite rebounder and defender I wanted to offer him 7.5 million a season but that would not be enough. At 7 million less than Hibbert it gave us more options to fill the team. Is Hibbert a better player than Asik without a doubt but is he better than Asik and Hickson who I was think we could get for around the same price I have serious doubts about that. Furthermore, I saw Asik as more of a 25 minute a night player which was essential to allowing Leonard develop. 

    Working with a salary cap means that at some point money becomes an issue or at least that is what it should mean even if the Lakers, Heat and Nets are doing everything to dispel that notion. 
    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/11/2012 6:19 PM

    Posted By boomtown on 07/11/2012 5:30 PM

    bottom line is, you don't need hibbert to score 20 ppg when you have the offensive talent portland has, and you massively sell him short.  his fills exactly the need portland needs and if he continues to improve, it's feasible this guy is averaging 15 pts, 15 boards, and 5 blocks per game in the next 5 years.   and to that I say goddamn.  


    15 points a game is possible but 15 boards or 5 blocks per game seriously? 

    The NBA has not seen someone average 5 blocks per game since 1985 and Manute Bol. 
    15 rebounds per game is more realistic but still not likely. His rebounding rate especially on the defensive end would need to double and his minutes would need to be around 36 or more a night to pull that off. That is probably not going to happen. 

    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. mbmurr1
    mbmurr1
    Posts: 530

    Posted 07/11/2012 8:08 PM

    Without a quality starting center we must pick-up Przybilla to be our starter and realize we will be better off not making the playoffs but making the draft lottery. I hope we get into a sign and trade with Batum where we get some great draft picks and a Sf in return.
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  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/11/2012 8:15 PM

    I think we will be fine with Freeland and Leonard but adding Pryzbilla only seems right since it will be his last season
    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
  1. boomtown
    boomtown
    Posts: 272

    Posted 07/11/2012 11:25 PM

    15 boards and 5 blocks per game is not completely unbelievable.  It may not happen, but he is already a double-double guy, he's improving, he showed he can average 11 ppg in the playoffs and he's not even in his prime.  So upping his average 3 or 4 more rpg in the next 5 years is possible.... and he averaged 3 blocks per game in the playoffs... over 2 per game on the year.  He's 7-2... as his confidence rises, he's going to start playing paddy cake.  I predict he gets at least 10 blocks in at least 1 game this coming year and it may be a triple double.  I further predict his average will be at or above 3 blocks per game this coming season.  Maybe 5 is a stretch, but that's the difference between you and I... I don't look at stats on a page and consider them to be static.  I see the potential, I have foresight, and I expect as hard as Hibbert works and as much as he's improved, that his stats are natually going to rise... no way his numbers stay where they are now.  no way.  So you can do a whole new bar graph in 3 years and it won't look nothing like all that stuff you compiled above... thus get that HIBBERT shoe ready.  Only thing holding him back is an injury... knock on wood.

    Honestly, I think you worry too much about money.  Hibbert is what Portland needs, period.  When you get what you need, you don't worry about the paycheck, u shouldn't anyway, you're not cutting checks.  if olshey and allen are fine with it, you shouldn't care or worry about it.


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  1. cmeese47
    cmeese47
    Posts: 2735

    Posted 07/11/2012 11:31 PM

    Indiana will look all the wiser if Hibbert becomes a double double guy this season and keeps improving. 
    I am a fan of Getting Defensive Players This Summer.
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