Message Boards > Trail Blazers Talk
INCONSISTENCY - DUH - NOTHING NEW
You are not authorized to post a reply.
  1. BlazerManiac
    BlazerManiac
    Posts: 687

    Posted 03/28/2012 2:31 PM

    Inconsistency  
    Quantifying NBA Variability

    by Kevin Pelton

    		 Printer-
    friendly
    Contact
    Author

    The Orlando Magic's two meetings with the Chicago Bulls this month showed the extremes of the team's performance. Playing in front of a national TV audience on March 8, the Magic went to Chicago and knocked off the league-leading Bulls by a 99-94 final. When the teams met a week and a half later in Orlando, Chicago played without reigning MVP Derrick Rose. Yet the Bulls still held the Magic to 59 points, the fewest allowed in franchise history, during a 26-point win.

    The divergent results fit into the narrative about the Magic. Because Orlando shoots so many threes--more than one in three of the team's shot attempts come from beyond the arc, the league's highest mark--the logic goes that the Magic's performance is unusually liable to fluctuate from game to game. Or, as you're likely to hear on TV, "Live by the three, die by the three." There is evidence behind this line of thinking. At the NCA level, College Basketball Prospectus contributor John Ezekowitz recently found that shooting more threes is associated with larger variance and less consistency.

    However, when I ranked NBA teams in terms of their consistency based on the standard deviation of their scoring margin from game to games, I was surprised to find that the Magic did not rank near the top of the league. In fact, Orlando's standard deviation of 12.8 points per game is almost exactly league average (12.7). Here, instead, are the teams that have been most and least predictable:

     MOST INCONSISTENT MOST CONSISTENT Team SD Team SD ------------------- ------------------- Portland 16.8 New Orleans 9.8 Philadelphia 15.2 Oklahoma City 9.9 New York 14.0 Minnesota 10.0 Indiana 13.8 L.A. Lakers 10.1 Sacramento 13.6 New Jersey 11.4

    In part, what we're measuring here is how often teams play blowouts. So it's no surprise that the Portland Trail Blazers, with three wins by at least 38 points and a 42-point loss on their ledger, have been the league's most Jekyll-and-Hyde outfit. The Philadelphia 76ers, too, have tended to destroy lesser competition this season. In the case of the Sacramento Kings, it's more about getting blown out while pulling off the occasional surprising upset. On the other side, Minnesota, New Orleans and Oklahoma City have all played a number of games decided down the stretch. The Thunder has gone 10-4 in games decided by five points or fewer, while the Hornets have won just five of 14 such games.
    I am a fan of JJ the Double Double Beast.
- Hide
   
 
 
 
 
   

    Recent Discussions

  1. Trade/Free Agents Ideas

    Started by DoubleDz on 05/24/13 at 12:33 AM

    Dont think they trade him for JJ tho, they can just sign Hickson.


  2. Neil Olshey, NO BALLS!!

    Started by DoubleDz on 05/21/13 at 2:56 AM

    Dwight is a cancer we do not need.

  3. Who to take at No. 10?

    Started by DHawes22 on 05/21/13 at 6:44 PM

    I watched Shabazz at the combine and he was a poor shooter.  In fact he did  so bad he did not even show up for drills in day two.  He may be a scorer not a shooter.  If he throws up enough shots he scores.  If someone looks a...

  4. The Mock Draft Thread

    Started by DHawes22 on 05/08/13 at 10:16 AM

    I have not been overly impressed with splitter''s defense in the post season.

  5. I dont get it?

    Started by Curvychloe on 05/23/13 at 9:18 AM

    Exactly why trading him before he bails might be the best plan

  6. Rebuild Diagram 1B

    Started by billyamick47 on 05/23/13 at 8:25 PM

    I would agree LMA is a decent defender but his help defense and team defense needs a lot of work. It is in these areas that Bosh really separates himself from LMA and it is because of that he is a better player than LMA despite not putting the sam...

  7. LMA League Leader

    Started by cmeese47 on 05/24/13 at 12:38 PM

    I was looking at some shooting stats and came across a very very alarming stat. LMA was the league leader in FGA from 16-23 feet. Not only was he the leader he was lead by a mile. His 7.3 attempts from this distance easily outpaced Demar Derozan w...

  8. The Official Batum Petition Discussion Thread

    Started by cmeese47 on 05/21/13 at 1:03 PM

    Sug I would start with him outscoring Wesley Matthews. He also needs to get his FTA up and his FG% up and cut down the turnovers. 


    His defense was decent last year but not that good as he is either too weak or just unwil...

Page 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10  ... 
Active Forums 4.1
NOT LICENSED FOR PRODUCTION USE
www.activemodules.com
The latest from
Everybody
Siccolo commented on Trade/Free Agents Ideas / jimbany updated their fan statement / cmeese47 created new forum topic LMA League Leader / StacyMike68 joined group Season Ticket Holders / NickPitherUK and DHawes22 are friends now / djogone updated their scrapbook / djogone uploaded new photo / daddy updated their Starting 5 / MJB uploaded new video /