Season Predictions: How Many Wins?
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  1. DHawes22
    DHawes22
    Posts: 6488

    Posted 12/28/2011 2:11 PM

    How Many Wins This Year For The Portland Trail Blazers?
    60+ (9)
     10%
    55-59 (10)
     11%
    50-54 (18)
     19%
    45-49 (26)
     28%
    40-44 (26)
     28%
    35-39 (4)
     4%
    Below 30 (0)
     0%


    I know the season is already underway and the Trail Blazers have made short work of both the 76ers and Kings. But with this being a shortened season, training camps lasting only a few practices, and there being just two preseason games (against the same opponent), I wanted to post this poll after we have all got a sneak peek of this current crop of Trail Blazers. The Trail Blazers have averaged 50 wins per season over the past three seasons, which is a .610 winning percentage. This year is different being there are just 66 games. So for the Trail Blazers to play at a normal 50 win pace, they must win 40 games this year.

    After two preseason and regular season games, here's where I see Portland excelling and what needs to be worked on:

    Strengths:
    Star Power - On any given night, Aldridge & Wallace can carry Portland to victory.
    Wing Depth - Portland is three-deep at two guard, has a veteran leader at point, and has the blessing of being able to bring a player like Batum off the bench.
    Versatility - As we have seen, the Trail Blazers can throw out a plethora of lineups at the Defense as nearly every player is capable of playing multiple positions.
    Home Court Advantage - The RG is one of the most difficult venues to play in for the opposition & lifts the team whenever they need a boost.

    Weaknesses:
    Rebounding - Whenever Camby exits the game, the Trail Blazers are susceptible to getting controlled on the boards.
    Interior Depth - The additions of Thomas & Smith help the frontcourt but as we saw in Utah without Camby, the team struggles to win.
    Perimeter Shooting - The outside shooting must become more consistent if the Trail Blazers want to keep double teams away from LaMarcus.

    With that said, leave your predictions for how many wins the Trail Blazers will compile over the course of the 2011-12 Season.
    I am a fan of
  1. freddead
    freddead
    Posts: 321

    Posted 12/28/2011 2:26 PM

    i think are weakness will be gone in a few weeks i think we will get better at rebounding once mcmillin figures out his rotations and perimeter shooting just will will be better cause we have good shooter almost all of are guards can shoot the ball
    I am a fan of
  1. SisillaRiann
    SisillaRiann
    Posts: 9

    Posted 12/28/2011 3:02 PM

    40+, but I'm a little realistic, so not more than 44 :)
    I am a fan of a new era of Trail Blazer basketball!!
  1. Herr
    Herr
    Posts: 643

    Posted 12/28/2011 4:12 PM

    40-45 for me. I think the Blazers will do well this season.  They seem like the only team so far to be playing very well together outside of OKC.
    I am a fan of
  1. ClydeFrog
    ClydeFrog
    Posts: 975

    Posted 12/28/2011 9:56 PM

    42 wins. That puts us at a little over 50 win pace if this were a regular season. I think our depth and home court will help us out in this shortened season. Not to mention, outside of Camby, we are a fairly young team so that should help on these back to backs.
    I am a fan of Watching Elliot Williams Take Flight!
  1. postedbailblazers
    postedbailblazers
    Posts: 165

    Posted 12/28/2011 9:57 PM

    agreed freddead...there are a lot of other improved teams out there this year and we are still in one of the best divisions in the NBA.  I think we improve %-wise but only by a few points.  I feel great about our future if we can keep this group together.
    I am a fan of rhubarb pie.
  1. Blazer247
    Blazer247
    Posts: 591

    Posted 12/29/2011 2:08 AM

    If our pace from the last few years would put us at 40 wins, and then you add the shortened season's benefits (Blazer depth @ many positions, easier travel schedule than we're used to/harder than most other teams are used to, youth will be helpful in consecutive games), i'd say that puts us at 42-44 wins...

    ...then you add in Gerald Wallace spending a FULL season here instead of coming in on the end. When he has his rhythm with the whole squad, especially the PG and PF, that'll give us another few wins. Lets go with 44-46...
    ...then add Ray Felton (read as 'younger version of Andre who is faster, better ball handling and has a better shot), who brings several years experience playing with Wallace, and a willingness to mentor/coach the younger pros around him, makin everyone better from our stars to our rookies (can Westbrook say he does that? Have you heard of Chris Paul trying to coach his teammates?). 46-48 wins...
    ...THEN add Jamal Crawford. 6th Man of the Year from only 2 years ago is not long past at all, plus he helps the team emotionally to mend the wound left by Roy; Crawford is a respectable guy with class, a northwest native, and a personal friend of Brandon from an early age. What other non-Blazer would be able to come to Portland and not only understand the situation, but have a real impact on it? On top of that, his numbers will be significantly better than Roy's were the last two years when we held that 61% win percentage. JCross can close games, create offense, and play multiple positions, giving us flexible lineups and comfort if (god forbid) we have more bad luck with injuries. So bringing all that, Crawford can probably help us earn another win or two, right? 48-50...
    ...Now let's detail our fresh blood; Elliot Williams' freakish athleticism coming back after his surgery (anyone remember how people were lookin at Blake Griffin at the beginning of last year, after his rookie year was missed from surgery?), Chris Johnson = Camby-of-the-future, and current Camby-esque defense while Camby rests (and once again, you gotta love the attitude of our vets mentoring the up-n-comers), Nolan Smith's NCAA-dominating ball skills and experience (now getting fine tuned with the help of RayRay and JCross), Batum coming back from his amazing summer in Europe, Craig Smith's toughness and interior aggression (again, being shown the ropes by a vet of his same style, Kurt Thomas). Guys!!! These players are huuuuuge improvements to our support from the last year or two. We may not have filled every gap completely, but this squad is ALOT more whole than it has been recently. 50-52 wins...

    ...and LaMarcus. LAMAAARRRRCCCUUUUUSSSS. You know the L-Train is gonna be gaining speed with every game. We're all stoked about Wallace's first two games, but suddenly with the chanting his name and all the attention (by the way, he doesn't seem to be that in to being the center of attention), I'm a little afraid that fans are going rabid for Wallace and ignoring Aldridge! In the first 2 games, Gerald went for 21pts and 25pts, 8-13 then 8-11, and 17 rebounds total. LaMarcus, at the same time, had 25pts and 24 pts, 11-25 then 10-15, and only 2 less rebounds total. Gerald has more assists, turnovers, and fouls, while Lamarcus has more steals, blocks, and points. AND I'd say Aldridge could make a pretty good case for having the shortest training camp in the NBA, thanks to the horrible timing for them to give him a checkup on his heart condition. So, he's doing as well or slightly better then Wallace, with slightly less training and conditioning coming in to the season. I'm not knocking our GMan, I'm a huge fan of Wallace and what he brings, and when BOTH of them are running at full speed this season, GET OUT OF THE WAY! Let's just not forget who put this team on his back last year, before there was any sign Wallace would be coming here, then got snubbed when it came to mainstream recognition, and now may be getting snubbed by some of his home fans at the beginning of what is gonna be the year of the L-Train. Bottom line: LaMarcus will perform as good or better than last year, and easily net us another 2 wins. 52-54...

    It's a basic breakdown, but if last year's Blazers could have won 40 games in this short season, I think this year's team is good enough that I hope they can win 50 or more. Even if some of these factors fall short, they can still hit that mark.

    So let me add one more target to aim for; as a Blazer FAN, I want to see them play with 100% energy and drive every game, have all of the above factors play in to full strength, and have to deal with minimal bad luck over the season... and head to the playoffs with 57 wins. It's possible, dudes. Dream it. Do it. Get it done, and we'll talk about the chances for it to have all gone wrong afterwards, when we're celebrating.

    Go Blazers.
    I am a fan of BLAZER BASKETBALL. Not drafts, not business, not trades, not David Stern. Just BLAZER BASKETBALL.
  1. mbmurr1
    mbmurr1
    Posts: 530

    Posted 12/29/2011 10:00 AM

    I think 51 wins 15 losses and #3 in the west. Playing Bulls in the finals. Blazers in 6 at home.
    I am a fan of
  1. Posted 12/29/2011 10:39 AM

    I think 45-21, #3 or 4 in the west, playing OKC in west finals, playing 6 games. If they make it to the finals, they're losing to the Bulls or Heat in 6.
    I am a fan of running the Helvetia Half-Marathon tomorrow!
  1. Ricky
    Ricky
    Posts: 540

    Posted 12/29/2011 12:17 PM

    I have been unimpressed with the shooting.  I think in some cases the blazers shoot too fast and are not set to make the shot.  42% over two games will normally not win many games.  I for one think the up tempo with a controlled fast break would yield better results.  I think the final results will have a record 39-27 and seeded 5 or 6 in the post season.  I hope I have underestimated the team.
    I am a fan of
  1. imablazersfan7
    imablazersfan7
    Posts: 5

    Posted 12/29/2011 10:31 PM

    Blazers with the depth we have and the weapons to grind out wins every night I wouldn't even say we would lose more than 12 games all year, and with the possibility of getting Oden in Feb. Blazers will be #1 Seed in West, after watching OKC struggle to beat a depleted Dallas team, not impressed, and don't think OKC will win 50 games this year!! Blazers 55-11 #1 in west, and Aldridge, Wallace, Matthews, and Felton will be All Stars!! 
    I am a fan of I am a fan of leaving it all out on the court and making a push for the playoffs
  1. imablazersfan7
    imablazersfan7
    Posts: 5

    Posted 12/29/2011 10:40 PM

    Great Post!! You broke it down like a pro would. That is why Portland has not only the best fans in the NBA but the smartest fans as well!! Cheers to you Blazer247!! And I see the same as you, and lets not forget that Oden will be back at some point this season and he will give us a few more wins as well including the playoffs!! Go Blazers!!!! Can't wait to see how badly we will destroy LAL, LAC and OKC next week!!
    I am a fan of I am a fan of leaving it all out on the court and making a push for the playoffs
  1. Curvychloe
    Curvychloe
    Posts: 610

    Posted 12/29/2011 11:02 PM

    Lets hope Oden comes back,they are sayin he's out all year,anyway if thats the case our season rests on Camby staying healthy
    I am a fan of Sexy Blondes at courtside
  1. Austin Martin
    Austin Martin
    Posts: 92

    Posted 12/30/2011 1:43 PM

    our first three games showed we can win ugly, which is good. but we need to continue to improve in order to keep up with the jones'
    I am a fan of
  1. commontongue
    commontongue
    Posts: 1864

    Posted 12/30/2011 8:46 PM

    For some reason, i am thinking G.O. will make a guest appearance in late January,early February. If so,id like to see him come in off the bench for sub .500 teams only. We dont have a long enough season to allow him to have reacclimation games. He's not going to be in game shape,and that only means senseless fouls and turnovers. I voted 40-45,but after reading the earlier comments,alot of which made sense, ive upped my thinking to 50. I cant wait to see the Rhino match up against Big Baby. Nate is a magician, i love that cat. He has quite a few athletes at his disposal,and despite this shortened pre-season, has managed to throw some pretty interesting line-ups at our opposition. Id like to see our bench evolve a bit more, particularly Nolan and Elliot. The Nevada connection of Babbitt and Armon are really beginning to upset my mojo. They've been here long enough to know what Nate expects from them,and yet, they consistently underachieve. We need right now players,school is out. Id love to see Nash on our bench,backing up Felton.  
    I am a fan of our new roster playing with and for eachother.
  1. Curvychloe
    Curvychloe
    Posts: 610

    Posted 12/30/2011 10:41 PM

    Armon johnson? Babbitt? Those dudes doon't even see the court
    I am a fan of Sexy Blondes at courtside
  1. Fallen_Deity
    Fallen_Deity
    Posts: 440

    Posted 12/31/2011 12:53 AM

    Common I have felt the same way about Oden since they announced his "setback".  It couldn't have been too big of a setback or they would not have resigned him at all.  Not only that but the last of my knowledge, he is still practicing just not contact which is huge if he is out there getting any reps in.  I agree to keep him low minutes against sub-par teams to get him a little court time and hope he can make even a slight impact in the playoffs.  Think how big of an emotional boost the RG would give to see him suited up.  The only not sub .500 team I would say bring him in, if even, would be a game where we could use the emotional boost at home.  The crowd would sound like they did against PHX when Roy came back in the playoffs 2 years ago.
    I am a fan of competing til the final buzzer!!!!!!!!!!
  1. commontongue
    commontongue
    Posts: 1864

    Posted 12/31/2011 8:37 AM

    Nor should they Curvy. @ Fallen,thats the Gospel. I'd love to see the Big fella come in and relieve Camby. But now the real test begins. Road games. This isnt our old squad who seemed to get spooked once they left the comfy nest of the RG. Crawford and Wallace are going to be big for us on the road. As will Felton and Thomas. The key is for Matthews & Felton to hit their open looks early. That will keep defenses honest and open up our inside game through L.A..
    I am a fan of our new roster playing with and for eachother.
  1. kenny c.
    kenny c.
    Posts: 418

    Posted 12/31/2011 8:38 AM

    Why sub .500 teams with Oden? Freak accidents can happen anytime anywhere - He's a huge body in the lane and so what if he fouls out, he needs to play, period.
    I am a fan of Winning
  1. commontongue
    commontongue
    Posts: 1864

    Posted 12/31/2011 8:45 AM

    Its not accidents that concern me,its game shape, both physically and mentally. You dont want to put a novice fighter in the ring too early against top tier contenders. He needs a few amatuer bouts. 
    I am a fan of our new roster playing with and for eachother.
  1. Austin Martin
    Austin Martin
    Posts: 92

    Posted 12/31/2011 4:02 PM

    Agreed, should he come back this year (which no matter what is purely bonus to me at this point in his career) he should A: never get starter minutes in order to keep him healthy (see Tim Duncan) and B: not play until he has seen enough practice time to warrent the coaches nod.

    He hasnt been on the court for two years, and he never did have a real feel for the flow of an NBA game when he was healthy. He will rack up lots of fouls, which could really hurt the team against tougher opponents (IE putting a team in the bonus early in a close game puts you at a huge disadvantage).
    I am a fan of
  1. leapingnome
    leapingnome
    Posts: 1

    Posted 12/31/2011 6:09 PM

    43 wins... and the western finals only to lose to okc. thats my prediction ....
    I am a fan of the game! I love the blazers but love the game more... let's go blazers..LET'S GO!!!
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