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Apr 11

Everything you wanted to know about playoff seeding but were too bored to ask

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By caseyholdahl

Greetings and welcome to the last week of the NBA regular season! There's been somewhere around 2,400 games played in the Association this season and yet very little has been solidified when it comes to playoff positioning in the Western Conference.

Sarah, our resident playoff positioning expert, has a more in-depth update on where the Western Conference playoff race stands, but in the meantime, I thought you might enjoy a explanation Trail Blazers PR staffer Collin Romer regarding all the possible scenarios regarding the Trail Blazers' potential seed in the playoffs, which is dependant on what the Trail Blazers, the Hornets, the Nuggets and the Grizzlies do in the remaining games of the season.

So we know for sure that the Trail Blazers will be either the 5th, 6th, 7th or 8th seed. That's all we know for sure. The rest depends on the following (deep breath...)

• If the Trail Blazers win both remaining games and the Nuggets lose out, the Trail Blazers are the 5th seed.

• If the Trail Blazers win both games (regardless of other results), the Trail Blazers are the 6th seed.

• If the Trail Blazers beat the Grizzlies but lose to the Warriors and the Hornets split their remaining two games, the Trail Blazers are the 6th seed.

• If the Trail Blazers beat the Grizzlies but lose to the Warriors and the Hornets wins their remaining two games, the Trail Blazers are the 7th seed.

• If the Trail Blazers beat the Grizzlies but lose to the Warriors and the Hornets lose their remaining two games, the Trail Blazers are the 6th seed.

• If the Trail Blazers lose to the Grizzlies, beat the Warriors and the Grizzlies win out and the Hornets split their remaining two games, the Trail Blazers are the 7th seed.

• If the Trail Blazers lose to the Grizzlies, beat the Warriors and the Grizzlies win out and the Hornets win their remaining two games, the Trail Blazers are the 8th seed.

• If the Trail Blazers lose to the Grizzlies, beat the Warriors and the Grizzlies win out and the Hornets lose their remaining two games, the Trail Blazers are the 7th seed.

• If the Trail Blazers lose to the Grizzlies, beat the Warriors and the Grizzlies lose to the Clippers and the Hornets split their remaining two games, the Trail Blazers are the 6th seed.

• If the Trail Blazers lose to the Grizzlies, beat the Warriors and the Grizzlies lose to the Clippers and the Hornets win their remaining two games, the Trail Blazers are the 7th seed.

• If the Trail Blazers lose to the Grizzlies, beat the Warriors and the Grizzlies lose to the Clippers and the Hornets lose their remaining two games, the Trail Blazers are the 6th seed.

• If the Trail Blazers lose their remaining two games and both the Grizzlies and Hornets win out, the Trail Blazers are the 8th seed.

• If the Trail Blazers lose their remaining two games, the Grizzlies win out and the Hornets split their remaining two games, the Trail Blazers are the 8th seed.

• If the Trail Blazers lose their remaining two games, the Grizzlies win out and the Hornets lose their remaining two games, the Trail Blazers are the 7th seed.

• If the Trail Blazers lose their remaining two games, the Grizzlies lose to the Clippers and the Hornets win out, the Trail Blazers are the 8th seed.

• If the Trail Blazers lose their remaining two games, the Grizzlies lose to the Clippers and the Hornets split their remaining two games, the Trail Blazers are the 8th seed.

• If the Trail Blazers lose their remaining two games, the Grizzlies lose to the Clippers and the Hornets lose their remaining two game, the Trail Blazers are the 7th seed.

So to recap, there are 17 potential scenarios for the Trail Blazers playoff seeding:

• There is one scenario (a 6 percent chance) in which the Trail Blazers are the 5th seed.

• There are five scenarios (a 29 percent chance) in which the Trail Blazers are the 6th seed.

• There are six scenarios (a 35 percent chance) in which the Trail Blazers are the 7th seed.

• There are five scenarios (a 29 percent chance) in which the Trail Blazers are the 8th seed.

(And yes, I know that only adds up to 99 percent. You really want remainders muddling this thing up more than it already is?)

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14 Comments

My brain is on fire after reading that.

by sarahhecht on 4/11/2011 9:44 AM
im shootin for the five seed spot

by jimbo707 on 4/11/2011 9:52 AM
So what you're saying is: it's a crap shoot!

by krizzikinz on 4/11/2011 10:00 AM
And then there are all the top 4 seed scenarios as well... the Lakers possibly falling to the 4th spot, Dallas or OKC in the 2? At this point, my guess is McMillan is telling the team, don't worry about who we're gonna play right now, let's just make sure we're ready!!!

by Robby McCall on 4/11/2011 10:02 AM
With so much uncertanty between seeds 5 through 8 and seeds 2 through 4, there is no point anymore to hope to get a certain seed with hopes to play a certain team.. We can hope for a certain team but the seeding means nothing at this point unless we dropped to 8th. So at this point. I say, let's just finish the season strong with 2 more wins and let the chips fall as they may.. We have proven we can compete with the elite teams of the NBA. No matter what team we face first, they better bring their A game.

by Jestatom on 4/11/2011 10:31 AM
Robby McCall:

Nate is saying we have but one game to play and that is the Grizzlies. when that game is over we have one game and that is GSW. One game at a time is all we can do.

by Hg on 4/11/2011 10:53 AM
Jestatom: agree whole heartedly. Control what we can and let what ever happens happen.

by Hg on 4/11/2011 10:55 AM
i'm sorry ... is all this going to be on my mid-term?!

by Kassandra on 4/11/2011 12:00 PM
It's only a crapshoot if you think shooting craps is luck. Being a semi-pro craps player myself (they call me "Chicken Bone" Casey" on the Vegas strip), I would say that this playoff scenario requires more luck than a typical craps game.

And yes, this will be on the test.

by caseyholdahl on 4/11/2011 1:43 PM
Like I said in my blog earlier, let the chips fall where they fall.

by blazerdarren77 on 4/11/2011 3:25 PM
Hopefully we can beat Memphis tomorrow night, assuring ourselves of no lower than the 7th seed.

by DHawes22 on 4/11/2011 4:04 PM
Chicken Bone Casey? Are you sure they didn't start calling you that after you hurt your knee at summer league?

by krizzikinz on 4/11/2011 4:55 PM
I'd rather see a list of the potential match-up scenarios.

by raggedydavey on 4/11/2011 9:06 PM
Though, you did a great job putting this together.

by raggedydavey on 4/11/2011 9:07 PM